NFL Betting: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Added on Sep 24, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Two teams that have played a combined three games at home this year–and won none of them–will face off on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns host the Miami Dolphins. Miami is 0-2 SU/ATS on the year while the Browns are 1-1 SU/ATS so far this season.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
September 25, 2011 10:00 AM Pacific

Wrong team favored here. The Miami Dolphins are dysfunctional to be sure, but they’re a better team top to bottom than their hosts. Miami is infamous for their bizarre home/road tendencies–they’re awful at home where they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games SU at Sun Life Stadium. On the road, however, it’s a completely different dynamic and they’re a very good investment. Away from home they’ve covered 11 of their last 14 games including 6 of 8 last season. As a road underdog of 3 points or less they’re a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS since 2009.

Since 2009 the Browns are 6-11 SU/7-10 ATS at home. The only reason that the Browns have a win on the year is that they were fortunate to catch the reeling Colts without Peyton Manning in Week 2. Cleveland’s greatest asset is powerful running back Petyon Hillis but he can’t do it alone. With the exception of Hillis, it’s all on erratic Colt McCoy to generate offense and he doesn’t have an inspiring wide receiver corps to work with. Miami will be dropping way down in class here after facing New England and Houston in the first two weeks of the season.

In addition to their mediocre pointspread performance at home, the Browns aren’t much to get excited about as a favorite. The last 10 times they’ve laid points they’re 3-7 ATS including 1-3 ATS last year. Miami may not be a great team but they’ve got enough competent pros and the physical toughness to take care of an overvalued Cleveland team. NFL handicappers don’t worry as much about ‘strength of schedule’ as their college counterparts but this is a case where the public perception is based almost exclusively on the W/L records of the teams and their level of opposition has been dramatically different. We look for the Dolphins to win outright with relative ease as their strange home/away dichotomy continues.

Bet Miami Dolphins +2′ over Cleveland Browns