Breaking Down UFC 131: Cerrone Vs Rocha / Einemo Vs Herman

Added on Jun 09, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Lightweight bout:
Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

Donald Cerrone
Odds: -500
Reach: 73inches
Record: 14-3-0 (1)
UFC Record: 1-0
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +3

Vagner Rocha
Odds: +300
Reach: N/A
Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 0-0
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +1

Donald Cerrone was originally supposed to fight Mac Danzig at UFC 131, and two opponents later he finds himself facing Vagner Rocha. There is a dangerous unknown element here for Cerrone in that this is Rocha’s UFC debut. Cerrone’s run in the UFC only faced road blocks when he was in a championship fight. Losing twice to Benson Henderson, and once to Jamie Varner, Cerrone found himself in position to wipe the board clean with the merger of the WEC and the UFC. ‘Cowboy’ got his first Octagon win at UFC 126 against Paul Kelly, and got himself the fight of the night check. Cerrone is training with Greg Jackson, and some of the best fighters in the world, and is becoming more and more dangerous in the cage. He has a 28-0-1 kick boxing record, and his Jiu Jitsu has become an important part of putting fighters away. 12 of his 14 wins have come via submission, but most of them were hurt with his hands or feet first.

Vagner Rocha is jumping right in the fire of the UFC, and the 29 year old is going to have his hands full with Cerrone. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt under Pablo Popovitch has already fought in Strikeforce and in Bellator, and he finds himself in a win win situation by stepping in and taking the fight. Rocha has fought 7 times since 2009, and has only lost once to former WEC fighter Bret Bergmark. His biggest win came over Igor Gracie by decision, and its not saying much since Igor hasn’t really made a splash in MMA. One thing is for sure Rocha wants this fight on the floor.

This is Cerrone’s fight to lose, and although its admirable that Rocha is stepping up, he is going to have to do something amazing to stop Cowboy’s momentum. I have seen very little of Rocha on tape, and I saw nothing that lead me to believe that he could stand and trade with Cerrone. Cerrone will have his way with the Rocha early in this fight, and I think the TKO comes in the first round.

Heavyweight bout:
Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

John Olav Einemo
Odds: +250
Reach: N/A
Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 0-0
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +1

Dave Herman
Odds: -240
Reach: N/A
Record: 20-2
UFC Record: 0-0
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +2

John Olav Einemo was supposed to fight former interim heavyweight champion Shane Carwin, but Carwin stepped up when Lesnar fell ill. Einemo was a hefty underdog to Carwin, and still finds himself an underdog to Dave Herman. Einemo is a ADCC champion, and has made it into the quarter finals the other two years he competed in the prestigious competition. Einemo has fought sporadically throughout his grappling career, and hasn’t fought since 2006. There are a lot of questions that will be answered on Saturday night, but when you ask the people in Einemo’s gym-they weren’t even worried about Carwin-and certainly not Herman.

The 20-2 Dave Herman has only really lost once, one of his losses came via an illegal knee to Sokouju, and his only other loss came when he fought for the first time in Japan at Sengoku. Herman has stacked up 14 KO/TKO wins, and most certainly has an experience advantage against Einemo. Herman is not going to want to roll on the floor with Einemo, and you will most likely see him jump out of guard if he ends up on top Einemo. John may have a slight reach advantage, but Herman definitely has the better striking in this fight.

I am not sure if Einemo’s chin has really been tested, but Herman is going to try and figure out its breaking point. I just feel that Herman has more ways to win this fight then Einemo. Could John Pull off a fancy submission? Of course he could, but a few things need to happen for him to be able to tie up Herman. I think Herman overwhelms Einemo sometime in the third round after a solid fight.