College Basketball Betting Picks: Arizona State at Nevada

Added on Dec 17, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

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We’ll head out West for a college basketball betting matchup on Friday night between Arizona State and Nevada. Pac 10 entrant Arizona State is 4-4 on the year, while WAC based Nevada is only 2-7. The game will be televised on the ESPN-U Network in the United States.

Arizona State at Nevada
December 17, 2010 6:00 PM Pacific

Handicapping early season college basketball can be a tricky proposition for a number of reasons, not the least of which is at play in this matchup. While you might assume that Arizona State is a qualitatively superior team based on their better record, we’re not so sure. In our view, these teams are very evenly matched and their records aren’t quite what they seem. Nevada has played a tough schedule in the early going–their losses are to Pepperdine, UNLV, Pacific, George Washington, Boston University along with a couple to underrated teams South Dakota State and Houston on the road. They’ve only played two true home games this year (one against UNLV, who is loaded this season). Arizona State’s four wins, meanwhile, are against UAB, Gardner Webb, Houston Baptist and Weber State.

In other words, Nevada is a +4′ point home underdog more due to the fact that they played a more ambitious early schedule. You can see signs that these teams are very evenly matched in their respective pointspread records. The Wolfpack are 4-4 ATS while ASU is 0-6 against the spread. Sun Devils have shown a tendency to underachieve in non-conference games in recent years (9-16 ATS since 2008). Arizona State may have more individual talent than their hosts, but that may work against them here. ASU’s starters log a lot of minutes while Nevada has 10 players that average 10+ minutes per game. Throw in the Reno altitude (roughly 4600 feet above sea level) and the Wolfpack depth becomes an even bigger factor. The altitude is a large part of why Nevada is such a strong home team–15-2 SU at the Lawlor Events Center last year and 103-20 since 2003. Nevada wins this one outright.

Bet Nevada +4′ over Arizona State