UFC Betting Free Picks: Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt
Added on Feb 06, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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UFC 109: Relentless will take place on Saturday night in Las Vegas and as sportsbooks place more and more of an emphasis on UFC betting we find more and more opportunities for value. We’ll gladly take a position in the UFC 109 co-main event as middleweights Chael Sonnen and Nate Marquardt face off with the winner likely to get a shot against division champ Anderson Silva down the road.
UFC 109: Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt
February 5, 7 PM Pacific
MMA betting is no different than any other form of sports betting –find the value and you’ll make money over the long haul. The reality of MMA is that once you get past the very top tier of fighters there’s a lot of parity the rest of the way. For that reason, its usually possible to find live underdogs on almost every card. The nature of fight promotion often results in a ‘public perception’ that one fighter is far superior to another, while in reality that’s simply not the case.
That dynamic is at work in this fight. Both Chael Sonnen and Nate Marquardt are double tough and experienced professionals. Marquardt got his start in the Japanese organization Pancrase, and is a former middleweight King of Pancrase title holder. He’s won 8 of 10 fights since transitioning to the UFC, most recently overwhelming Brazilian Jiu Jitsu prodigy Demian Maia with a first round knockout. His two losses in the UFC have both come when stepping up in class, against middleweight champ Anderson Silva and a controversial split decision loss to Thales Leites.
Sonnen’s fighting background is in Greco Roman wrestling, and he fights out of Portland, Oregon where he trains with highly regarded Team Quest along with Matt Lindland, Ed Herman, Enoch Wilson and other top notch fighters. Like Marquardt, Sonnen has a very impressive record boasting 9 wins in his last 11 fights. His losses came to Paulo Fihlo via a controversial submission in which the fight was stopped despite Sonnen repeatedly saying ‘No’ when asked if he wanted to submit. He would avenge this loss less than a year later. His other defeat came via submission to BJJ monster Maia.
For whatever reason, the UFC has put more of its promotional muscle behind Marquardt than the comparatively low key Sonnen. That may explain the disparity in the fight odds here, as based on these two fighters’ experience and skill set its a much closer matchup than the sportsbook prices suggest. Marquardt has a black belt in BJJ and the corresponding advantage in submissions, but Sonnen is well versed in submission defense. Sonnen’s strategy–like many Team Quest fighters–is to ‘win ugly’ via takedowns and control of his opponent on the ground. This is a very even matchup between two first rate ground fighters, and for that reason Sonnen is a great value as a 3/1 underdog. If he can fend off Marquardt’s submission attempts, he’s got a very legitimate chance of taking a decision victory. In any case, Sonnen is a great value at the price.
Bet Chael Sonnen +300 over Nate Marquardt
