UFC 123: Breaking Down Matt Hughes Vs. BJ Penn

Added on Nov 19, 2010 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

It sounds cliché when we have to say as an analyst “It depends which fighter shows up.” You can’t ignore that as a fact for the UFC 123 Co-Main Event taking place between Matt Hughes and BJ Penn. These guys have fought twice before, and each have won one, but the score will be settled this Saturday night outside of Detroit, Michigan.

They both admittedly knew this rematch would eventually come. Honestly, its a perfect co-main event for what will probably turnout to be a really exciting night of fights. The history goes like this. They fought at UFC 46, and BJ Penn caught Hughes with a nice punch from the standing mount midway through the first. BJ swarmed in, and Matt gave up his back, and eventually the choke. They fought again at UFC 63. This time Hughes used his wrestling to gain side control on BJ in the 3rd round, and he eventually put him in a crucifix which led him to getting the TKO win.

BJ has just come off a two fight losing streak, but not only was the first one a questionable loss, they were both to now middleweight champion Frankie Edgar. Both were decision losses for Penn, and in the second one he seemed unmotivated. He has never lost more then 2 fights in a row before, so we can only assume he is going to be a motivated fighter when he steps into the cage. I would argue that BJ has the better stand up game then Matt Hughes, and there is no doubt in anyones mind that BJ has top shelf jiu jitzu. If BJ can keep this fight standing, or better yet get Matt Hughes on his back, this could be an easy win for BJ Penn.

The one thing that worked for Hughes in his fight with BJ before was his wrestling. There is no doubt in anyones mind that Matt Hughes will try to use his wrestling to smother BJ for 3 rounds. Expect take down after take down if BJ can manage to get up from his back from a few of them. Hughes has momentum going for him, as he has won his last 3 fights. He defeated Matt Serra, Renzo Gracie, and Ricardo Almeida, but this is a big step up in competition from what he has been currently fighting. Hughes has been fighting for different reasons lately. Before he was winning belts, and now it seems like he is just in it for the competition.

I expect BJ Penn to be able to stop a few of the takedowns from Hughes early in the fight. If he can manage to control Matt on his back he should be able to win this fight. I think this will happen by way of strikes, and I say BJ going in for the kill when Hughes gives up his back to avoid strikes. I see BJ finishing this in the second round via Rear Naked Choke.