Breaking Down UFN 24: Hardy Vs Johnson / Nogueira Vs Davis

Added on Mar 25, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Co-Main Event

Welterweight bout

Dan Hardy Vs Anthony Johnson

Dan Hardy

Odds: +155

Record: 23-8 (1nc)

UFC Record: 4-2

Streak: 2 losses

Reach: 74 Inches

Anthony Johnson

Odds: -155

Record: 8-3

UFC Record: 5-3

Streak: 1 Loss

Reach: 78 Inches

Dan Hardy had a terrible 2010, he had a short lay off waiting for Georges St. Pierre fight, in which he fought for the title and lost. He then came back to take on old WEC standout Carlos Condit, and he was knocked clean out early in the fight. He is looking to fight at least 3 times in 2011, and he is going to need a win to get back on track. Hardy has a lot of fans, so I don’t think he is fighting for his job, but mentally he needs to pile up some wins to get back in title contention. Before those two fights he was riding a 7 fight win streak including four in the UFC.

Anthony Johnson is a ridiculously larger welterweight and will probably be walking into the octagon with at least a 20 pound advantage of Hardy. Johnson’s cut is huge, and it seems like one of those cuts that may be hazardous. Some say before camp, and in shape, Johnson walks around at about 210. Johnson had to pull out of his last fight scheduled for March of 2010 because of a knee injury, and he hasn’t been in the octagon since November of 2009. Many people thought because of the injury, and the enormous weight cut, that we would probably see Johnson fighting at middleweight. He was riding a three fight win streak, and then fought Josh Koschek. The fight had many infractions in the almost ten minutes it took, but it ended when Josh choked out Johnson with seconds left in the second round.

Johnson will have a reach advantage on fight night, and it will be the noticeably larger fighter. The move to middleweight is almost a forgone conclusion, as he just can’t keep making this weight. Especially if he will be fighting a ground fighter, but he won’t have that issue with Hardy. The fighters who can beat Johnson are the ones who can take him down and control him. Hardy will want to stand and trade with him, but he will have to get on the inside to do it, and thats where he may run into trouble. The violence expectation for this fight is off the charts, and someone is most likely going to be waking up on the cage floor. I think Johnson will be able to overwhelm hardy sometime in the second round, and will get the win via technical knock out.

Main Event

Light Heavyweight bout

Antônio Rogério Nogueira Vs. Phil Davis

Antônio Rogério Nogueira

Odds: +279

Record: 19-4

UFC Record: 2-1

Streak: 1 loss

Reach: 75 Inches

Phil Davis

Odds: -300

Record: 8-0

UFC Record: 4-0

Streak: 8

Reach: 79 Inches

Where Antônio Rogério Nogueira has been a top light heavyweight for years, Phil Davis has exploded on the scene, and to many he represents the “new breed” of fighters that are now fighting in the UFC. Davis has pieced together 8 straight wins and 4 of them have taken place in the Octagon. All of the octagon wins came in 2010. He will be taking a big step up in competition, as Nogueira is as crafty as a veteran can be. Davis is a former Division 1 NCAA wrestler, and he currently studies Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under the great Lloyd Irwin where he is currently a blue belt.

Nogueira is coming off of his first UFC loss against Ryan Bader, and many people felt he actually won the fight (I was at the event, and scored it for Nogueira.) Nogueira was riding a 7 fight win streak before the loss to Bader, he hadn’t lost a fight since 2007, where Sokoudjou was able to knock him out in under 30 seconds at Pride 33. Nogueira was supposed to face Tito Ortiz in this fight, but Tito was pulled from the fight, and Davis is stepping up.

I think Davis is gong to want to test the waters a little bit on the feet, and that will be a dangerous time for him. To survive he will have to keep Nogueira at the end of his punches and kicks. Nogueira has a tested chin and has taken shots from the hardest hitters in the division, but Davis will eventually give up on that idea and take Nogueira down. Nogueira is an ace on the floor, and although we don’t get to see it much, his ability to sweep off his back and control guys on the floor is top notch. Phil’s survival on the floor all depends on his defensive BJJ because Nogueira has no problem grabbing limbs and necks and ending fights with them. I can see a close decision going either way in this fight, but this is a big step up for Davis, and although he has the momentum going for him, I think Nogueira will frustrate him and get the decision win.