Breaking Down UFC 132: Silva Vs. Leben / Bader Vs. Ortiz
Added on Jul 01, 2011 by John Petit in
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Middleweight bout:
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben
Wanderlei Silva
Odds: -185
Reach: 74 inches
Record: 33-10-1 (1nc)
UFC Record: 3-5
Last 5: 2-3
Streak:+1
Chris Leben
Odds: +155
Reach: 70.5 inches
Record: 25-7
UFC Record: 11-6
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: -1
Wanderlei Silva is coming off a win over Michael Bisping, but has since undergone a knee surgery. Prior to that he had only won one of his previous 6 fights, and many thought Silva could possibly be heading towards retirement. One thing is for certain, the Silva we are seeing now in the UFC is not the Silva of old. Thats not a swipe at him. I think its a good thing that he is realizing that fighting isn’t all about getting beat up to beat someone up. He is fighting smarter, and to be fair his recent losses were to some top shelf fighters.
Chris Leben was on a 3 fight win streak, including two wins in less than a month, when he faced Brian Stann and was TKO’d for the first time since his KO loss to Anderson Silva in June of 2006. Typical Leben style is to walk through punches while throwing them, and it usually pays off for him. Even announcer Joe Rogan has commented that he seems to punch harder after he has been hit hard himself.
I have two picks for this fight, one is from my hear and the other is with my wallet. I can’t name a person in MMA cooler than Wanderlei Silva, and I will cheer for him for as long as he puts on gloves. My heart says Silva. My wallet is telling me Leben, and I see him eventually tagging Wandy. I have this nervous suspicion that both will stand in the center of the Octagon and trade punches ‘rock-em-sock-em-robots’ style. If that happens, I see that ending terribly for Silva. I’m going to say emotion takes over sometime in the second round, and they both go toe to toe. When that happens I see Leben landing a big left hand and finishing him on the floor.
Light Heavyweight bout:
Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader
Tito Ortiz
Odds: +415
Reach: 74 inches
Record: 15-8-1
UFC Record: 14-8-1
Last 5: 0-5
Streak: -3
Ryan Bader
Odds: -500
Reach: 74 inches
Record: 12-1
UFC Record: 5-1
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: -1
Many are still wondering how Tito Ortiz still has a job with the UFC, and Tito himself says he had to beg for this fight. After not winning any fights since 2006, and doling out excuse after excuse, Tito finds himself fighting for his job again. He has dealt with injury after injury, and numerous surgeries, and is no where near the fighter he once was. Ortiz used to be a ground and pound master, but the fighters who have entered the UFC have learned how to do the same things and defend them as well. Tito just never bothered to evolve with the game.
Ryan Bader is coming off of his first pro loss to now UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Bones Jones. Bader had little problems with all of his previous opponents, and showed some world class wrestling as well as a dangerous right hand. His last win against Big Nog was a close fight that many thought he should have lost, but if he fights like he did in that fight this one should be a cake walk for Bader. I think I would even pick Bader over Ortiz in his prime.
Bader has the power in his right hand to knock out someone like Tito, but I don’t think thats how this one plays out. I think Bader will establish the takedown early, and I expect Ortiz to gas out relatively fast. I see the power edge going to Bader, I see the wrestling edge going to Bader, I see the cardio edge going to Bader, and I can’t find anything that Tito would be better at this point. If you think Tito can win, by all means enjoy throwing money down on these odds, but I see Bader grinding out the Unanimous Decision.
