Breaking Down UFC 130: Stann Vs. Santiago / Alves Vs. Story

Added on May 25, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Middleweight bout:
Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago

Brian Stann (former WEC Light Heavyweight Champion)
Odds: -130
Reach: 74in
Record: 10-3
UFC Record: 4-2
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +2

Jorge Santiago (former Sengoku MW Champion)
Odds: +123
Reach: (NA)
Record: 23-8
UFC Record: 1-2
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +2

Since Brian Stann moved down to middleweight, he has looked like a different fighter. Stopping Mike Massenzio by triangle choke and TKO’ing Chris leben, who has one of the most respected chins in the fight game, is a good way to let everyone in your division that you have arrived. Stann has only lost twice in the UFC, to Phil Davis at UFC 109 and Krzysztof Soszynski in his UFC debut at UFC 97. Stann really seems more aggressive at middleweight, and a lot more confident in his striking ability.

Former Sengoku Middleweight Champion Jorge Santiago has been fighting since 2002, and this will be his second stint in the UFC. He previously went 1-2 where he posted up a win over Justing Levens, but went on to lose to Chris Leben and Alan Belcher. All three fights were at Fight Night cards. Since mid 2008, Santiago has been fighting in Japan for Sengoku, and has amassed a 7-1 record. With 9 submission wins and 12 TKO/KO, its safe to say that Santiago is no stranger to where ever the fight may end up, but when he has been hit by reputable strikers he has a hard time staying conscious.

Santiago has the ability to beat a guy like Stann, but I don’t see it happening in this fight. Stann took some heavy punches from Leben and I don’t see Jorge hitting him that hard. The only person to TKO Stann was Steve Cantwell, and I have never seen Santiago with that kind of striking ability. I think late in the first round, or early in the second round, Stann is going to turn up the heat on Santiago. I think Stann finishes this fight with strikes early in the second frame.

Welterweight bout:
Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story

Thiago Alves
Odds: -260
Reach: 70in
Record: 18-7
UFC Record: 10-4
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: +1

Rick Story
Odds: +180
Reach: 71in
Record: 12-3
UFC Record: 5-1
Last 5: 5-0
Streak: +5

Thiago Alves has been fighting in the UFC longer than Rick Story has been fighting MMA, and I have a hard time putting that out of my head when breaking down this fight. Thiago is coming off his “second chance” fight at welterweight against John Howard. For a short time, according to Dana White, Thiago would be fighting in the middleweight division, but Thiago petitioned White and they agreed he would get one more shot at welterweight against John Howard. Thiago looked fantastic in the Howard fight, and dominated the entire 15 minutes to get the decision win. If this is the type of Alves that comes into the octagon on Saturday, Rick Story might have a short night. When Thiago is on point, he is a killer in the cage.

Rick Story dropped his debut fight in the UFC to John Hathaway at UFC 99, but he has won his last 5 fights and finished 2 of them. At some point a fighter has to take a step up in competition and take on a top tier fighter, and this is Story’s chance to do so. Story will be fighting in his home town of Vancouver, and if there is a fight where he will take any edge he can get this is it. He is going to have to use his momentum and the energy to really try and turn the heat up on Alves.

Story has never fought a guy as aggressive in all areas of fighting as Thiago Alves. Thiago enjoys pulling fighters into the later rounds of a fight and grinding them up, and even when he has lost his opponents look like they have been in a fight. I see Thiago winning this, but I don’t see him finishing Rick Story. Story will earn a lot of fans after this fight, but I think Alves will get the unanimous decision.