Breaking Down UFC 130: Jackson Vs. Hamill / Mir Vs. Nelson

Added on May 26, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Light Heavyweight bout:
Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

Quinton Jackson
Odds: -300
Reach: 73in
Record: 31-8
UFC Record: 6-2
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: +1

Matt Hamill
Odds: +250
Reach: 76in
Record: 10-2
UFC Record: 9-2
Last 5: 5-0
Streak: +5

One of Matt Hamill’s wins is a questionable one, and one of his losses is questionable as well. Yes, He has a loss to Michael Bisping, but anyone with a brain will tell you that he clearly won that fight. Sure, he has the only win over current light heavyweight champion, but its hard to say he was winning that fight at any point. I some how think cosmically his record has worked itself out, and now he finds himself with a top 5 light heavyweight fight in Quinton Jackson. Hamill has the ability to beat a fighter like Rampage, and Hamill has only been finished once in his 12 fight career, but it will depend on what Hamill shows up for the fight.

With Jackson talking of retirement in 2 years many people are questioning where Jackson’s head is at coming into this fight. Some analysts think he Rampage has already checked out, and simply taking pay checks in between movie roles. I find this hard to believe myself because of how closely I have followed Jackson’s career. Rampage loves to fight, and to think he wouldn’t take one seriously seems foreign to me. I think he is looking at the ending of his fighting career, but I don’t think he isn’t still committed to fighting.

Jackson will have the better striking in this fight. Some people have painted Rampage in a corner and think his striking is just one or two solid punches in his arsenal. His striking is far more superior than that, and I am pretty sure Hamill doesn’t think this. Hamill will have the edge in grappling, and I think if he mixes up his strikes enough to set up his take downs, I think Rampage will have a long night come Saturday night. A good strategy for Hamill would be to leg kick Rampage through out the first and second round, and put him o his back when he can. At a few points during the Forrest Griffin Vs Jackson, Rampage looked almost lost when he was on his back.

If Jackson can stop the take downs of Matt Hamill than he should have a pretty easy time winning this fight. Jackson needs to fight HIS fight and not let his emotions take over and try to take Hamill’s head off. Jackson is far superior on the feet, and all he needs to do is score points unless he happens to hurt Hamill. Thats what I see happening in this fight, and I see Rampage winning this one by a close decision.

Heavyweight bout:
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

Frank Mir
Odds: -135
Reach: 79in
Record:14-5
UFC Record: 12-5
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: +1

Roy Nelson
Odds: +121
Reach: 73in
Record: 15-5
UFC Record: 2-1
Last 5: 2-3
Streak: -1

Frank Mir is coming off one of the most boring wins in UFC main event history. He walked around in a circle with Mirko Crocop for 15 minutes before he landed a knee that knocked out Crocop clean out. If he is expecting the same kind of fight out Roy Nelson he will have a rude awakening come Saturday night. Don’t let Nelson’s exterior fool you, he doesn’t look like the other The Ultimate Fighter season winners, but he has cardio that can go for days.

After figuring out a contract dispute with Roy Jones Junior, Nelson is back in the octagon. Nelson is coming off of a decision loss to Junior Dos Santos in a fight where he demonstrated a serious beard. JDS hit him with some HEAVY shots that he was able to walk through, and JDS happens to be a KO artist. Nelson has the ability to out grapple Mir on the ground, but he will have to get Mir there to do it.

Before Mir beat Crocop, he fought Shane Carwin for the Heavyweight Interim Championship belt where he lost via Knockout. Mir has shown a tendency for relaxing when he is clinching with other fighters, and it proved to be his undoing when he fought Carwin. If Nelson can exploit these moments like Carwin did, I can see Nelson finishing Mir in this fight. Mir has shown the ability to change up his striking, and if he is able to keep Nelson guessing where his strikes are coming from I think he will enjoy the advantage on the feet.

A lot of people seem to be writing off Mir in this fight, and I think thats a bad idea. Saying this is Nelson’s fight to lose is a little hasty in my opinion, as I think Mir is going to study the people who defeated Nelson and walk away with some good ideas. If Nelson gets the fight to the floor, I think he will be able to out grapple Mir, but to me thats still a big if. I think Mir is going to squeak out a decision in this fight, and use his striking to confuse Nelson.