Breaking Down UFC 128: Marquardt Vs. Miller/ Miller Vs. Shalorus

Added on Mar 17, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Middleweight bout:

Nate Marquardt -300 vs. Dan Miller +240

Nate Marquardt 74in Reach

(30-10-2)

9-4 in UFC

Dan Miller 74in Reach

(13-4-1)

5-3 in UFC

I don’t see an opportunity to make money on this fight. Typically when Nate Marquardt is the stronger guy he is damn near impossible to put away. Nate has had difficulty putting away opponents who are standing directly in his way at a shot at Anderson Silva, but everyone else he seems to shine against.

Marquardt was supposed to fight Yoshihiro Akiyama, but due to difficluties in Japan, Akiyama has pulled out. Dan Miller stepped up and it was a brilliant move to do so. Not only will he earn some future favors from the UFC top brass for stepping in and being a company man, but he also gets a shot at learning a lot about himself and where he stands in the 185 division. If Miller manages to defeat Marquardt, and if he does it convincingly, he will most likely be given a top five opponent and a win at most away from a title shot.

Miller will have to own this fight if he wants a shot at winning. He must make Nate fight his fight, and keep Nate distracted from launching his own attacks. Nate has the ability to overwhelm everyone in the division that isn’t Silva, Okami, and Sonnen, and Dan will have to keep him honest through out the whole fight.

I think this is a win for Marquardt, but Dan Miller will make it a tough fight. Miller is rolling the dice by taking a fight like this, but he has everything to win and not much to lose. Look for Nate to take this fight to the floor in the second, and put Dan in the meat grinder. When Nate sees how he is able to handle to Miller on the floor, he will do it again in the third. I think Marquardt get the decision win in this fight.

Lightweight bout:

Jim Miller -275 vs. Kamal Shalorus +240

Jim Miller (19-2)

(8-1) in UFC

Kamal Shalorus (7-0-2)

(UFC Debut / 3-0-1 in WEC)

When analyzing Jim Miller its important to take his two losses into account. The only two people to beat Miller are Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar (he lost to Edgar before he went to the UFC.) Those are the types of people who can beat Jim Miller, and I’m not sure Kamal Shalorus has the tools to do what those fighters did to Miller. Jim is on a 6 fight win streak, and he seems to be gaining a lot of momentum as he becomes more and more scrappy.

Jim Miller has a lot going for him in this fight, and with Shalorus making his Octagon debut, I’m sure Jim will have the edge in experience. I think the key to Shalorus winning this fight will be if he can figure out a way to stop the take downs of Miller and force him into some exchanges. If he can do that he could potentially land something big on Miller, and end the fight. However, the bad news is that Shalorus has had problems with gassing out in the third round, and if that happens against Miller he will need a miracle to win the fight.

Shalorus is a tough fight for anyone, but Jim Miller is a handful to deal with. Miller has never been finished in a fight in his career, and I am not sure that Shalorus will be the one to do it. I expect Jim Miller to rough Kamal up in the fight, and where him down in the final round. If Jim doesn’t get the finish in the third round, then Miller will get the unanimous decision win.