Breaking Down UFC 128: Faber Vs. Wineland / Shogun Vs. Jones

Added on Mar 18, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Bantamweight bout:

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland

Urijah Faber -550

Record: (18-6-1)

UFC: Debut (WEC: 9-3)

Eddie Wineland +450

Record: (24-4)

UFC: Debut (WEC: 5-2)

After changing up his training programs, former WEC Bantamweight champion Eddie Wineland is now on a four fight winning streak. He rode under the radar while refocusing his training and ground game, and it has paid off in spades. He is going to need all the ground skills as he can muster even though his last two fights have won in Knock Out Of The Night bonuses. If Faber gives him the chance Wineland has the power to win via knock out.

Faber has a lot to lose in this fight, as he is likely a win away from a shot at 135-pound champion Dominick Cruz. Faber will be the bigger fighter, and this was the problem he ran into in the featherweight division. Faber used his speed and ingenuity to reign as champion, and that was until he ran into bigger and stronger fighters. In his first fight at 135, Faber attacked Takeya Mizugaki at WEC 52, and took his back. Moments later he choked Mizugaki out cold.

Many people are predicting Faber to take an easy win in this fight, and I am not sure thats a wise thing to do. Wineland is a game opponent who can put his name on the international map with a win over the WEC poster-boy Urijah Faber. Expect Wineland to make a fight out of this, and both fighters have the ability to go 15 minutes at a crazy pace.

When you look at Faber’s performance against Mike Brown the second time, we saw Faber was almost impossible to keep down, and even against a bigger fighter he was scrambling and getting up and the end of a 25 minute tiled fight. That’s what Faber will bring to the cage when he fights Wineland. I see Faber really changing things up and keeping Wineland on his heels the whole time. Faber can trade hands with anyone, and have a smooth a transition into a takedown or a clinch. However, if he makes a mistake on the feet with Wineland he may have a short night. I expect Faber to use the clinch to rough up Eddie Winland, and eventually work to his back and securing the rear naked choke. I think it will end in the second round.

Light Heavyweight Championship bout:

Maurício Rua (Champion) Vs. Jon Jones

Maurício Rua (Champion) +170

Record: 19-4 (UFC: 3-2)

Reach: 76 inches

Jon Jones -210

Record: 12-1 (UFC: 7-1)

Reach: 84.5 inches

If you are one of those guys who bet by going off of UFC records then you really need to pay attention to this write up. If you stopped reading now, I would ask you why you hated money. There are many good reasons why either of these guys can win this fight, but none of them have anything to do with their records. Jones’ only loss came against Matt Hammil when he was disqualified for an illegal elbow, and many people disagreed with the decision. Mauricio Shogun Rua has fought all over the world, he has been the 23 year old champion, and he has been making world class strikers look almost foolish in the Octagon.

Shogun’s record reads like a who is who in Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight fighters. He has wins over Lyoto Machida, Chuck Liddell, Alistair Overeem, Quinton Jackson, Kevin Randleman, and Antônio Rogério Nogueira. Shogun is a violent striker who can close the distance fast, and has shown the ability to overwhelm the most elite strikers in mixed martial arts. If Shogun comes in healthy, his knee is an X factor in this fight, he is going to have the advantage on the feet. Shogun is a former Chute Boxe fighter which means two things; You are violent on the feet, and you are aggressive on the ground. We have only seen Shogun win by submission once, but don’t sleep on his BJJ as he is an expert on the ground.

Jon Bones Jones is coming off of a slick submission win over Ryan Bader, and the UFC then offered him the fight against Rua in the Octagon after the fight. Jones technically took this fight on 5 weeks notice when his team mate Rashad Evans was forced out of the fight with a knee injury. Jones needs to put all of this fighting Rashad stuff aside, because if he isn’t 100% focused he will get destroyed by Shogun. Jones has the longest reach in the light heavyweight division, and he uses it well to keep people at a distance where he can run his game. Jones’ first step when going in for a takedown is one of the fastest in the game, and I would be surprised to see Shogun stop all of them. Jones’ long limbs also make him able to cinch up jokes well before other fighters think they are in trouble. Also important to mention is Jones’ creativity in the cage. He knows how to put together violent strikes, and isn’t afraid to take chances if he can land certain strikes.

This is a close fight, and when the fight is this close I would normally pick the larger fighter. However, I think its foolish to ignore the experience factor Shogun has in this fight. I think there is a lot of pressure that Jones has put on himself leading up to this fight, and I am wondering if its a little too much for the 23 year old fighter. Jones is a great fighter, but he hasn’t fought mistake free, and Shogun WILL take advantage of those mistakes if given the opportunity. I see Shogun either finishing this fight in the championship rounds, or winning this fight by decision.