Breaking Down UFC 124: Thiago Alves Vs John Howard

Added on Dec 09, 2010 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

I think it is impossible to not question the conditioning and weight of Thiago Alves coming into his fight with John Howard. Alves has missed weight twice now, including his last fight, and routinely talks about cutting an extreme amount of weight. I’ve heard estimates upwards of 25 pounds! You have to wonder how much longer Thiago Alves can keep making 170lbs. You simply can not ignore the fact that it affected his fighting ability in his fight with Jon Fitch. He is in an awkward position, to small to be a middleweight, and too big to be a welterweight. He has been working with a new nutritionist who insists he is in shape, and ready for the weight cut. Forgive me if I remain skeptical.

Thiago Alves is coming off of two unanimous decision losses in the fight (Georges St. Pierre, Jon Fitch.) They were arguably the worst showings of his career. Alves has a strong muay thai game, with bone bruising leg kicks, and his striking in general is explosive to say the least. Alves is dangerous from any position on his feet, using tie-ups and exchanges to land big shots, and his upper-body strength can be hard to deal with.

John Howard is coming off of a loss to Jake Ellenberger that ended a six fight win streak, and four of those were under the UFC banner. Howard showed an ability to take some shots and still be in the game in the Ellenberger fight. Its one thing to be able to get beat up and survive 15 minutes, but some fighters can still be dangerous late in a fight after getting handled(Chris Leben comes to mind.) Howard is one of those guys. He has a simple task in this fight. He has to pressure Thiago, and take him down. He needs to make Alves carry his weight, both standing and on the floor, and he needs to take this fight to the later rounds. Jon Fitch made it look easy, and it will be much more difficult for Howard to do it. Howard should avoid getting baited into exchanges where he is “throwing hands” with Thiago, because that could end the fight quickly for Howard.

Jake Ellenberger is a tough guy, but Thiago Alves seems like an even bigger step up in competition for John Howard. Thats IF Thiago comes to the fight in shape. If he has more weight issues you should ignore this prediction. Thiago can knock people out, and can be brutal with the level changes of his strikes. I don’t think you will see too many leg kicks, because I can only assume Howard will be looking to use those for the takedown, but Alves knows how to create distance and throw elbows. Fight ending elbows! Thats how I see this fight ending. Early in the third round, Alves will either be using the Thai plum or create distance from Howard on the fence, and end it in a quick barrage that sends Howard to the floor.

I saw the odds as high as +260 for John Howard. If you have no confidence in Thiago’s health or weight, and you think he just gets handled by wrestlers, there may be money in a bet here. Maybe you can get a price right after the weigh-ins tomorrow, especially if Alves misses again. I see the logic in making a bet like that in this fight, but I wouldn’t make it myself until the fighters leave the scale.