Breaking Down Fedor Vs. Henderson: Coenen Vs Tate / Lawler Vs. Kennedy
Added on Jul 28, 2011 by John Petit in
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Women’s Welterweight (135 lb) Championship bout:
Marloes Coenen (champion) vs. Miesha Tate (challenger)
Marloes Coenen
Odds: -147
Reach: 67.5 inches
Record: 19-4
Strikeforce Record: 3-1
Last 5: 3-2
Streak:+2
Miesha Tate
Odds: +1
Reach: 66.5 in
Record: 11-2
Strikeforce Record: 3-0
Last 5: 5-0
Streak: +5
When you pair up wrestlers and BJJ fighters its hard to tell the outcome. One thing is for certain, these two ground fighters are going to test each other like no one has before. The way it stacks up on paper this is really any ones fight. They both have the ability to surprise the other one on the ground and standing up.
Coenen was controlled on the feet for three plus rounds against Carmouche, and it was a fourth round submission that saved her from losing the fight. The good news is that despite being in several bad spots in the fight, Coenen showed a tremendous amount of composure and kept her cool. She fought through those bad spots and didn’t panic and was able to earn the submission victory.
Miesha Tate has a lot of momentum going into this fight, and her style seems to be to only use strikes to close the distance and work for the take down. I am not sure that is the best plan for this fight, especially in the earlier rounds, but as the fight goes on I feel the advantage goes to Tate. Her stamina will be better, and if she can stay busy in the tie ups and clinch she can do things that will surprise Coenen.
If Tate makes this a safe fight, and she strategically focuses on edging out points and winning rounds, she can wins this fight. She just needs to stay out of the submissions that Coenen is known for. Its easier said than done, and her corner should play an important role in this fight if they are astute enough to point them out. You can’t count out Coenen in any fight, she is a game opponent and capable of finishing most fighters. However, I think Tate is going to take this one via a close split decision.
Middleweight bout:
Robbie Lawler vs. Tim Kennedy
Robbie Lawler
Odds: +190
Reach: 74 in
Record: 18-7 (1)
Strikeforce Record: 2-3
Last 5: 2-3
Streak: -1
Tim Kennedy
Odds: -240
Reach: 74 in
Record: 13-3
Strikeforce Record: 3-1
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +1
This fight has fight of the night written all over it. Lawler has the ability to put just about anyone on the seat of their pants, and Kennedy has the ability to force fighters to play his game while he mauls you with all aspects of his vastly improving skill set. These are arguably the top of the Strikeforce middleweight food chain if you excuse current champion Jacare’. A fighter they both have losses to.
Lawler will try to use us angles and foot work to land combinations, and hopefully land that one punch that will put Kennedy out cold. In his loss to Jacare’, Jacare’ made him look plain dumb on the floor as he had next to no attacks from his back. This is obviously the hole that Kennedy will look to exploit. Lawler needs to make a decision as to whether he is going to tie up and force a stand up, or throw strikes in an effort to create a scramble.
Kennedy is a grinder with the innate ability to force his game on most of the fighters he faces. The longer this fights goes, I give him the advantage, but he needs to stay busy and will have to put himself in some danger to win this fight. Those times when he does put himself in danger, and how reacts to those moments, will decide if he wins this fight or not. I think Lawler will take those opportunities, like he has been known to do, and exploit them to win a close brutal decision.
