Superbowl Prop Betting: The National Nielsen TV Ratings Prop

Added on Feb 04, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

The Superbowl is always one of the most widely viewed television broadcasts of the year, and this year won’t be any different. A number of sportsbooks are offering Super Bowl props on the Nielsen TV rating that the game will get. Here’s our analysis and recommendation on that proposition:

THE NATIONAL TV RATING PROP:

What will the TV Rating be for the Super Bowl?

Over 46 -155
Under 46 +115

The Nielsen TV ratings are an inexact science. There are two numbers most frequently cited–the ‘rating’ and the ‘share’. The rating reflects the percentage of households with television (currently estimated to be right around 116 million) tuned in to a particular broadcast. The ‘share’ reflects the number of television sets in use tuned in to a particular broadcast. This number is usually higher.

This bet deals with the ‘rating’, meaning that to win this bet the Nielsen rating has to reflect over 46% of all households with television watching the Super Bowl. The highest Super Bowl rating in history was achieved during the 1982 broadcast of Super Bowl XVI which pulled a 49.1 rating with a 76 share. This high number has often been attributed to a severe winter storm in much of country which, in theory, resulted in more people staying home and watching the game instead of going out to sports bars or whatever. We could see similar conditions for this year’s game.

On the other hand, demographic trends and advances in technology work against a high rating. Even though the total potential audience is larger now, they have more viewing options due to the growth of cable and satellite TV. In 1982, the major networks still dominated television viewership which is no longer the case. While there’s not an ‘official’ way to watch Super Bowl XLV online, there will be no shortage of streaming outlets available meaning that you won’t necessarily even need to turn on your TV to view the contest.

Last year’s Super Bowl did achieve the highest number of viewers in NFL history with an estimated 106.5 million viewers watching the game. That translated to a 45 Nielsen rating and a 68 share. Based on regular season viewership trends, there’s every reason to expect that the total audience for Super Bowl XLV could be even larger. While television ratings in general and for sports in particular have trended downward during the past decade, the NFL has largely been immune to this phenomenon. Some speculate that the technological advances in broadcast technology have served to benefit the NFL–simply put, the game looks incredible in HD. Then again, however, so do other sports (hockey in particular is amazing in HD). Historically, certain segments of the entertainment industry–including sports–have benefited from a weak economy. The thinking is that when people can’t afford to go out and spend money on recreational activities, they watch more television. For that reason, the improving economy could serve to dampen ratings for this year’s game–in theory at least. Once again, however, the NFL’s strong regular season performance seems to refute this theory.

The NFL is enjoying record high regular season ratings. Here’s what CBS Sports President Sean McManus had to say about the league’s ratings performance:

“I’m continually pleased and really amazed by the kind of ratings that are being generated by all the networks during the regular season and postseason. Go figure. The NFL is just on fire this year. Fan interest seems to be at an all-time high.”

That ‘fan interest’ could be the salient component of this handicap. In 2006, the average rating for a NFL regular season game was 61% higher than the best rated prime time non-sports programming. Today, they’re 144% higher. The matchup between the Steelers and Packers also seems conducive to a very strong rating. There’s a public perception going into the Super Bowl that this will be a very competitive game. Last year, you’ll recall, the predominate thinking heading in to Super Bowl Sunday was that the Indianapolis Colts would likely beat the upstart New Orleans Saints. If you look at the Super Bowl pointspread as a reflection of how potentially competitive the game will be, the fact that the Packers are -2′ favorites while the Colts were -5 favorites last year underscores this public perception.

In theory, the relatively small size of the Pittsburgh and Green Bay TV markets are a concern. Pittsburgh is the #23 television market Green Bay the smallest in the NFL at #70. That would likely be a bigger concern for a championship matchup in other sports, but as we noted above the NFL just isn’t governed by the same rules. Last years’ record number of viewers was for a game between the #25 market (Indianapolis) and the #53 market (New Orleans). Furthermore, both teams are among the most historically successful and storied franchises in the league and both have strong nationwide followings.

With a good matchup and in a year where the popularity of the NFL is “on fire” it’s hard to make a compelling case for a smaller viewership than last year so the only way to bet this prop is to go Over.

Bet Over 46 National Nielsen rating