Superbowl Betting: 7 Rules For Superbowl Betting Success

Added on Feb 04, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

Now let’s get down to brass tacks–before we get into the specifics of the Super Bowl odds or our analysis of prop bets we’re going to give you some rules for Super Bowl betting success. Many of these are not only applicable to the Super Bowl but sports betting in general. Learn them, live them and reap the profits:

1) Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose:

That’s pretty simple advice, but based on the numbers its something that a lot of people forget on Superbowl Sunday. Sports betting is not a discipline where you can force a “quick killing”. Over time, there may be opportunities to do just that but you can’t force them—you have to let them come to you. I’m not in a position to suggest a proper amount, or percentage of bankroll—just remember that its just another game and you don’t want to risk your entire bankroll on it.

2) Don’t fixate on the favorite:

For most of the Superbowl era, the game was dominated by the favorite. This was well known not only within the handicapping community but by the general public. The problem is that its not the case any more—in fact, favorites have only covered 3 of the L10 Superbowls. My guess is that this has to do with the changes in the NFL salary structure. In a league where parity has always been the hallmark, the revised salary guidelines leveled the playing field even more. Teams can no longer stockpile talent at the skill positions, so gone are the days where teams like the San Francisco 49ers can have three QBs that could (and eventually would) start for other teams. This shouldn’t be construed as recommending a play on the Steelers–we’ll get to the specifics of the Super Bowl pick shortly–but gone are the days where you could blindly bet the favorite and expect to cash a ticket.

3) Don’t get hung up on history:

Many handicappers have held as a truism the concept that a team that has been to the big game before has a distinct advantage over a Superbowl “virgin”. Again, this is a notion that the revamped financial structure of the game has completely invalidated. With free agency and rampant player movement from year to year, the Superbowl history of a franchise simply doesn’t matter any more. New era NFL teams are built to win “now”, and the fact that their franchise has or hasn’t been there before means nothing. This rule is pretty much irrelevant this year with two of the most storied franchises in the NFL making the Super Bowl but is worth keeping in mind for future years.

4) Pick your ‘experts’ carefully:

Every media outlet—sports and otherwise—is featuring a wide array of Super Bowl ‘experts’ telling you who’ll win the big game and why. If you’re going to bet on the game you’ve got to know what you’re doing and the reality is that 90% of these ‘experts’ have never placed a bet in their lives. Don’t listen to mainstream media sports hacks or some clown’s “Uncle Vito”. You’re off to a good start here at Sports Betting World where I can vouch for the knowledge and experience of the staff personally. As for myself, I’ve been betting on sports since before I could legally drive and have been earning a living as a fulltime sports bettor for my entire adult life. The picture accompanying this article is of the Stardust Sportsbook in Las Vegas. When I started my handicapping career it was the center of the sports betting universe. It’s been a pile of dust for four years now, having been imploded in 2007. In other words, there’s not much in the sports betting world we haven’t seen. You’re in good hands here.

5) Don’t pass on props:

Year after year, some of the best wagering value in the Superbowl can be found in the myriad of prop bets. This is particularly true in player performance props or head to head matchup props—some basic analysis of the relevant statistics can frequently uncover excellent value in these bets. And, as always, shop around from book to book for the most favorable propositions at the best price.

6) Be a contrarian:

Many prop bets are wagers on whether something will or won’t happen. For example “Will there be three unanswered scores” or “Will there be a score in the first three minutes of the game”. The general public would rather see something happen than not happen and these props are often priced accordingly. In other words, when in doubt bet on the negative.

7) Don’t forget about value:

No matter what you bet on, make sure its priced so that you’re getting value. The best example of a prop bet that is inherently a bad value is the wager on the coin toss. I’m currently looking at a book that is offering your choice of heads or tails at -110. Of course the correct price of any coin flip is +100, reflecting a 50/50 proposition. Putting aside the fact that it’s impossible to handicap a coinflip, no matter which side you choose you’re betting at less than ‘true odds’ and getting the worst of it. This is important in any wagering proposition, and the Superbowl is no exception. Don’t check your math skills at the door.

Stay tuned for the most comprehensive betting analysis on the Super Bowl available anywhere in the world. We’ll be covering the side and total along with a myriad of prop bets. We’ll be monitoring and interpreting any late line movements. You won’t find better information for any price anywhere than you’ll get here at Sports Betting World for free.