Super Bowl XLV Opening Line And Early Moves

Added on Jan 24, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

The Superbowl betting matchup is set as the Green Bay Packers will face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas on February 6. The Packers had a relatively easy time dispatching the Chicago Bears 21-14, while the Pittsburgh Steelers held off a 2nd half New York Jets rally to prevail 24-19.

Since everyone knows that the Super Bowl is the biggest sports betting event of the year, sportsbooks quickly posted their opening line on the big game. The consensus opening line was:

GREEN BAY -2
PITTSBURGH 44′

The public–and a number of ‘sharps’–is clearly behind this Green Bay Packers team. Money quickly came in on the Packers and the Over both from ‘squares’ and ‘smart money’. As of 11 PM Pacific Sunday night there’s -2′ all across the board. A number of books have added a moneyline, preferring to deal a price of -2′ -120 rather than move the line onto the key number of 3.

The total has gone from 44′ to 46, a reflection that the Packers’ offense will dictate the outcome of the Super Bowl as opposed to the Steelers’ defense. It’s worth noting that typically the early move is on the favorite/Over but based on my conversations with a number of ‘sharp’ players there looks to be a good deal of ‘wise guy’ support for the Packers this year. There’s not yet a ‘smart money’ consensus on the total, but the move is understandable based on support for the Packers.

What this means is that if you’re wanting to bet the Packers you’re best served doing so now. It’s hard to see much money coming in on Pittsburgh based on the early betting patterns until they’re getting at least +3 (the ‘key number’ again). What you might see is sportsbooks dealing a moneyline with the -2′ price before eventually moving to -3′ which would prevent a potential middle on 3–the ‘worst case scenario’ outcome for a bookmaker.

On the other hand, if you want to play on the Steelers you’ve got no real motivation to get down now. Once the game goes to +3 or +3′ you may want to move, but there’s nothing to suggest that a big hit of Steelers money is forthcoming. My thinking is that based on the early line movement you may see some equilibrium around +3′.

As far as the total, there’s no real reason to get down now in any case. You may see some more upward movement but at this point there’s no real advantage to taking a position now.

SportsBetting World will feature more Super Bowl news and betting analysis than you’ll find anywhere else, including updates and analysis of any significant line movement so check back often.