Super Bowl XLV: Additional Prop Bets

Added on Feb 06, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

In this post we’ll cover some of the more unique posts available at Sports Interaction, a couple of which appear to offer decent betting value. Some of these props may be available at other books but based on my research all are limited in their availability:

THE OBAMA TOUT PROP:

This prop asks who Obama will pick to win the Super Bowl:

Pittsburgh Steelers -208
Green Bay Packers +145

Obama tries to come off as a ‘regular guy’ and since he’s from Chicago he claims “his team” is the Chicago Bears. No ‘regular guy’ would ever root for his team’s biggest historical rival in a Super Bowl and particularly after that team eliminated “his” team in the NFC Championships. Note that this bet is ‘no action’ if Obama doesn’t give out a side play and since everything he does is politically calculated there’s a good chance he won’t. If he does, however, he’ll be backing the black and gold. This will likely end up being a ‘no play’.

Bet Obama to pick Pittsburgh Steelers to win Super Bowl -208

MOST PENALTY YARDS AGAINST:

Self explanatory prop to determine which team will rack up the most penalty yards during the game:

Pittsburgh Most Penalty Yardage -152
Green Bay Most Penalty Yardage +110

Our handicap of this isn’t exactly brain surgery–the Pittsburgh Steelers amassed 716 penalty yards on defense and 903 on offense for a total of 1619 or 101.1 yards per game. The Packers had 758 yards on defense and 617 on offense for a total of 1375 or 85.93 yards per game. We’ll bet accordingly.

Bet Pittsburgh Most Penalty Yardage -152

FIRST TEAM TO BE PENALIZED:

Pittsburgh -120
Green Bay -120

Using the data above we’ll conclude that Pittsburgh is the more likely team to be penalized. Obviously the true probability depends on several variables that we just don’t know at this point–eg: who’ll win the coin toss and who’ll kick off and receive first. Without that information, we’ll have to conclude that the team most likely to be penalized is the one most likely to be penalized *first*.

Bet Pittsburgh to be penalized first -120

TOTAL PLAYERS TO HAVE PASSING ATTEMPTS:

This is an interesting prop, which essentially translates into betting that a) either someone other than the quarterback will throw a pass such as on a fake punt or other trick play or b) that a quarterback injury will necessitate a backup seeing playing time. Here’s the prop:

Players to have a passing attempt Over 2.5 +167
Players to have a passing attempt Under 2.5 -238

Here’s my thinking on this–obviously the most likely scenario is the ‘Under’ but keep in mind that these are the #1 and #2 sack defenses in the NFL. Plus in Green Bay’s case you’ve got a quarterback that has already suffered a concussion this season. Given the ferocious pass rush of both teams there’s a better than average chance that at least one of the QB’s ‘gets their bell rung’ and has to come out for a play or two. We’ll take the price.

Bet Players to have a passing attempt Over 2.5 +167