Super Bowl Props: Green Bay Packers Player Props

Added on Feb 05, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

We covered the Pittsburgh Steelers’ player Super Bowl props in our previous post and now we’ll turn our attention to the Green Bay Packers. We’ll repeat our overview on player props that we gave in our previous post. As is the case with many other Super Bowl props, a common mistake is to tie your prop bet positions in with your ‘best case scenario’ as to who will win the game. For example, if you think the Pittsburgh Steelers will win you might be tempted to go ‘Over’ on a variety of production props involving their players. While Ben Roethlisberger could throw for 400 yards passing it seldom works out that way. Besides, we’re in the business of statistical analysis and not speculation. More typically what happens is one or two players have ‘big days’ while most of the team produces at or slightly below their season average. Predicting *which* players will perform significantly above their usual level is an exercise in futility. Note that this list is far from exhaustive–the goal with this post and the next post is to run down some of the more attractive looking betting positions. If time permits, we’ll try to pick up some of the other props tomorrow before game time. As is the case with all of our prop bets, the propositions and prices we quote are from Bodog but most of these wagers can be found at any decent sportsbook.

SUPER BOWL MVP:

At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive with our position of not trying to speculate on which players will have a ‘big day’. In actuality, what we’re doing is looking for value–more specifically, we’re trying to determine which players could have a significant impact on the game at a favorable price. We won’t run through the entire list of odds offered but the range from Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers at 3/2 to Pittsburgh linebacker Lawrence Timmons at 45/1. The ‘field’ is also available at 16/1 but since most of the significant players on both teams are quoted we have no real interest in that position.

Obviously, if Green Bay is going to win this game it’ll most likely happen through the air. James Starks has provided the Packers with a solid rushing option of late, but expecting him to take over the game against the top rush defense in the NFL is a tall order. While Green Bay will definitely want to establish the running game, we expect them to do so from a position of strength–by spreading the field early and forcing the Pittsburgh linebackers to help out in coverage. On the other hand, if Starks is able to produce yards against the ferocious Steelers’ defensive front it’ll go a long way to helping the Packers win and earning him a MVP award. We don’t like the price on Aaron Rodgers for Super Bowl MVP so we’ll look to his receiving corps for some value. Donald Driver is a solid pro who could benefit from the Pittsburgh focus on Greg Jennings but our choice from the receivers based on value and performance is Jordy Nelson who has become a very valuable contributor during the playoffs. We’ll take a position on both Starks and Nelson at nice prices.

Bet James Starks to win Super Bowl MVP 16/1
Bet Jordy Nelson to win Super Bowl MVP 35/1

AARON RODGERS PASSING ATTEMPTS:

Over 35 Passing Attempts -135
Under 35 Passing Attempts +105

No secret here–Aaron Rodgers is going to throw the football. If he’s able to complete passes the Packers have a good chance of winning. If they fall behind he’ll keep throwing to get them back into the game. We project his passing attempts to be in the 40′s making the Over the play here.

Bet Aaron Rodgers Over 35 passing attempts -135

JORDY NELSON TOTAL RECEPTIONS:

We talked about Nelson above and here’s how his prop is priced:

Over 3.5 receptions -125
Under 3.5 receptions -105

Nelson has become a more important option in the Green Bay passing attack during the postseason. He’s got 12 catches in the past two games including 8 against Atlanta. We’ll look for him to continue playing a major role and for this prop to play Over.

Bet Jordy Nelson Over 3.5 receptions -125