Super Bowl Betting: Sportsbook Futures Favor Patriots

Added on Dec 12, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is still over a month away but sportsbooks are already offering futures wagers on the eventual winner. In this article, we’ll take a look at some of the current prices and see if we can find any value. The prices herein are from 5 Dimes and were posted before the games of Sunday, December 12. They’ll be re-figured and put back up early in the week with some obvious changes.

Not surprisingly, the New England Patriots are currently the favorite to win Super Bowl XLV in Dallas. The Pats have been playing better than anyone in the league of late and that sure didn’t change on Sunday as they demolished the Chicago Bears in the snow at Soldier Field. 5 Dimes had New England installed as a +415 choice before their 36-7 victory and, if anything, will be posted at an even shorter price when the futures numbers go back up this week.

It’s hard to have issue with anything the Patriots have done lately–they’ve won 5 straight, have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL and have won their last three games by a combined margin of 126-34. They’re not without liabilities, however–they’ve got the #31 ranked passing defense and #19 ranked rushing defense. And there’s always the risk of injury or other interceding event occurring before the Super Bowl. New England has a great shot at making it to the championship game, but there’s not much value in backing them now at this price.

The next two favorites are the Pittsburgh Steelers at +640 and the Atlanta Falcons at +680. The Steelers have postseason experience working in their favor while Atlanta is tied with New England for the best record in the NFL at 11-2. Next up are the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles at +1080. The Pack will surely be re-priced at longer odds after their dismal showing in Detroit combined with the iffy status of quarterback Aaron Rodgers who suffered a concussion in the loss. Philadelphia has become something of a public darling this year, but hard to see them making it to the Super Bowl and winning. Too many injuries and too little experience on the defensive side of the ball.

The New Orleans Saints at +1125 and the Baltimore Ravens at +1500 are both very intriguing teams. The Saints are, of course, defending Super Bowl champions and have been somewhat overshadowed by the Atlanta Falcons this year. They’ve very quietly posted a 10-3 record and have won 6 straight games after struggling earlier this season. Hard to argue with a position on New Orleans–you’re getting a very good team at a nice price. Ditto with Baltimore at +1500–Ravens are 8-4 but have the type of team built around a strong rushing game and stout defense that usually performs well in the postseason.

On down the list are the New York Jets (+1525), New York Giants (+1800), San Diego Chargers (+1800) and Chicago Bears (+2350). In theory, any team could get hot at the right time of the year but no secret that all of these squads have serious liabilities. The Indianapolis Colts at +2750 are an interesting play–they’ve definitely underachieved this year and may not have the personnel due to injury to make a Super Bowl run but, on the other hand, that’s a tasty price on Peyton Manning and an offense that has the potential to play more efficiently than any in football.

If you really feel like backing a longshot the weak NFC West is the place to look–the San Francisco 49ers (+12500) may be the most likely winner of football’s weakest division but the Seattle Seahawks (+15500) and St. Louis Rams (+13500) are both still in the mix. It’s hard to envision any of these teams getting past the first round, let alone making it to the Super Bowl but these are still beefy prices for teams that will actually be in the playoffs.