Super Bowl Betting Picks: Super Bowl Side and Total

Added on Feb 06, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

And now its time for the main event–the single biggest sports betting opportunity of the year as the Green Bay Packers play the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. You can find plenty of analysis on the prop bets and every other aspect of betting the big game here at SportsBetting World but this post will set you up with the Super Bowl betting picks for the side and total.

SUPER BOWL XLV–SIDE AND TOTAL

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
February 6, 2011 3:30 PM Pacific

The public quickly jumped on the Packers after the Super Bowl lines were posted two weeks ago, but they quickly stabilized at -2′ and stayed there with little fluctuation since. Today, however, there’s been some signs of late money coming in on Green Bay as a number of sportsbooks have moved the line to -3. Since this is a key number it’ll be interesting to see if player action pushes it even higher or if there is some buyback on Pittsburgh.

The ambivalent of the betting public is understandable since this is a game in which the strengths of each team play right into the weaknesses of the other and vice versa. The Steelers’ rushing defense is the best in the league, but the secondary can be vulnerable as Tom Brady and the Patriots demonstrated. The Packers’ primary weakness on the defensive side of the ball is likely the rushing game. That’s significant since the Packers are a pass oriented offense and the Steelers live by the run.

This handicap in our view comes down to some very simple concepts. We’ll start with the price on the game which implies that the Packers are a 3 point better team on a neutral field than the Steelers. That’s a tough sell. More importantly, however, we think the Steelers are just the more versatile team on both sides of the ball. This is crucial on offense–James Starks has been a pleasant surprise for Green Bay, but it’s hard to expect him to take over the game against the Steelers’ suffocating run defense. So if Rodgers is off the mark, the Packers are dead in the water. Roethlisberger will never be mistaken for Dan Fouts, but he’s capable of making big plays through the air and effective at moving the ball with screen and shovel passes.

The defense also looks to be a slight edge to the Steelers. Their secondary isn’t as good as their defensive front, but that’s not surprising since their defensive front is the best in football with their linebacking corps arguably one of the best in league history. We look for them to put a lot of pressure on Rodgers and force him to get rid of the ball quickly.

We also like the ‘mental game’ of the Steelers. The Packers as a franchise have been here before, as have individual players on this team but it’s the first shot at a title for Aaron Rodgers. We haven’t been sold on the Packers all year and they may have ‘overachieved’ early. That’s the flip side of when a team is ‘playing their best football at the right time’ as Green Bay has done down the stretch and into the playoffs. Pittsburgh has done things the opposite way–they’ve quietly gotten better each week on both sides of the ball. There’s a confidence about Pittsburgh that we don’t really see with Green Bay. It may be a close game, but ultimately we’ve got to take the Steelers plus the points here.

Oddly enough, despite our call on the Steelers we look for the game to go Over the total. Both teams should be able to put points on the board and despite the horrible weather outside the conditions indoors at Cowboys Stadium will be perfect. We look for a final score somewhere around 27-21 Steelers which would put this Over the total.

Bet Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over Green Bay Packers
Bet Pittsburgh/Green Bay Over 45