Does Defense Really Win Championships?

Added on Jan 27, 2011 by Scott in

Super Bowl

When attempting to breakdown the ins and outs of a Super Bowl matchup, I make a point of leaving no stone unturned. Having an edge, especially when cold hard cash is involved, is the key to not eating your hat come the Big Game. Which is why I spend most of my spare time delving into stats and history. It might sound boring, and it can be at times, but it’s worth the effort when I discover a nugget that will help me predict the eventual winner. Today, I’m looking to answer the following question: does defense really win championships?

When it comes to evaluating defenses the only number that matters is points allowed. Great, dominating defenses don’t give up touchdowns. Super Bowl XLV will feature the league’s top two teams in points allowed, with Pittsburgh ranked number one and Green Bay number two. Safe to say, defense was integral to both teams getting this far, but will it be the key to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy?

Going back to the year 2000, let’s take a look at the Super Bowl participants too see if defensive ranking correlates to winning.

Year	AFC Rank	NFC Rank	Winner
2010	1^st	2^nd	?
2009	8^th	20^th	NFC (Saints)
2008	1^st	14^th	AFC (Steelers)
2007	4^th	17^th	NFC (Giants)
2006	23^rd	3^rd	AFC (Colts)
2005	3^rd	7^th	AFC (Steelers)
2004	2^nd	2^nd	AFC (Pats)
2003	1^st	10^th	AFC (Pats)
2002	6^th	1^st	NFC (Bucs)
2001	6^th	7^th	AFC (Pats)
2000	1^st	5^th	AFC (Ravens)

The teams in red were the only ones to buck the trend and win with lower rated defenses. Seven of ten champs — including the Steelers twice — were better in points allowed; four were ranked number one. This bodes well for Pittsburgh, although it doesn’t spell doom for the Packers. Bottom line: in recent years, defense has proven to win more titles than lose.