Potential Super Bowl Betting Pointspreads

Added on Jan 22, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

The NFC and AFC Championship games won’t take place until Sunday, but despite that fact I’ve been inundated with people wanting to know what I think the Super Bowl betting line will be in the various matchup scenarios. It’s really not a bad question since sportsbooks from Las Vegas to Costa Rica have already worked out an opening line for all of these scenarios so they can get them up as soon as possible after Sunday’s games end.

I haven’t consulted with anyone on the bookmaker side of the counter for ‘inside information’ since the benefit to you in posting these lines will be the ability to react quickly if the opening number offers any value. Obviously these prices are subject to the influence of events in Sunday’s games and/or the ‘public perception’ that those games produce. For example, if the Steelers struggle to get past the Jets while the Packers rout the Bears that could influence the opening Super Bowl price.

SCENARIO ONE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -1 OVER GREEN BAY PACKERS

This game could easily be a ‘pick’ and the Packers are the current futures betting favorites to win the Super Bowl–5 Dimes has them priced at +175 while the Steelers are priced at +195. So why would I open the Steelers as a favorite, albeit slight? Simple–my hunch is that the perception of the ‘casual fans’ will be that the Steelers have an advantage in this matchup based on a variety of intangible factors. Whether it’s their history, recent success, or just a greater level of familiarity with their players and team I’m thinking that in a ‘pick’em’ game the ‘square’ money will come in on Pittsburgh. Even though there’s not much of a statistical difference between making the game a ‘pick’ or -1 since only 3% of NFL games were decided by 1 point during the 2010 regular season this at least shades the line slightly in the direction in which I think the money will come in and could possibly give Packers backers some psychological incentive to get down early while they’re ‘getting points’.

SCENARIO TWO: GREEN BAY PACKERS -3′ OVER NEW YORK JETS

My power ratings would suggest a -3 opening line, but I’m making the Packers a -3′ point favorite in hopes of getting some early money on the dog. These teams played one of the strangest games of the year on October 31, with Green Bay beating the Jets at home 9-0.

SCENARIO THREE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -4′ OVER CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears aren’t going to get any respect from the public unless they win the Super Bowl. While the ‘true odds’ of this matchup would suggest a line of -3 or -3′ I’d open the Steelers -4′ point favorites since I’m thinking that barring a serious injury or some monumentally strange circumstance in the conference finals they’ll attract the early money. I could even be underestimating the public perception of the Steelers’ superiority and you could see them open as an even higher favorite.

SCENARIO FOUR: NEW YORK JETS -1′ OVER CHICAGO BEARS

This matchup would make Super Bowl history as the first game contested between two Wild Card teams. Oddly enough, I’d price it in a similar manner as Scenario One–my power ratings suggest that this is a fairly even matchup and the fact that both are Wild Card teams could have the public thinking the game is a ‘toss up’. Still, I think they’d be leaning toward the Jets based on a lack of respect for the Bears and the fact that to get to this point they’d have to beat the Steelers. Obviously, the Bears would have to beat the Packers to get to the Super Bowl but my thinking is that beating Green Bay would serve less as a validation for Chicago and more of an indictment of the Packers–the public could assume GB was ‘overrated’ all along.

In any case, we’ll have the real pointspread as sportsbooks will post them shortly after the NFL Conference Finals conclude on Sunday. Then get ready for more Super Bowl coverage and analysis than you’ll know what to do with here at SportsBetting World.