Green Bay Packers Now Super Bowl Futures Favorites

Added on Jan 17, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

With both #1 seeds losing in the NFL playoffs this weekend, there’s been a huge shakeup in the Super Bowl futures betting numbers. The new favorites are the Green Bay Packers, though that may have more to do with a lack of respect afforded to the Chicago Bears than anything else. The Bears made short work of overmatched Seattle while the Packers routed the top seeded Atlanta Falcons.

The Packers are +180 to win Super Bowl XLV in Dallas on February 6. The second choice is another team very familiar with playing in the big game, the Pittsburgh Steelers who are priced at +210. The New York Jets are the #3 choice at +400, while the Chicago Bears are the ‘longshot’ among the remaining teams at +485. In the individual conference championship games, the Green Bay Packers are a -3 road favorite against the Chicago Bears with the total set at 43′. In the AFC Championship, the Steelers are -3 point home favorites over the New York Jets with the total set at 39.

If you took the futures betting advice we gave you earlier this weekend you’re now in a very strong position with the Bears at +800 and the Steelers at +650. There’s now a number of ways we can hedge these positions, but the specifics depend on how aggressive you want to be. You can take the easy route and lock up all four teams which will set up a situation where the ‘worst case scenario’ is break even:

Bet 2 units on Green Bay +180
Bet 1 unit on New York Jets +400

These bets, along with the positions we already have on the Bears and Steelers will produce a breakeven if the Jets win, a 2.5 unit profit if the Steelers win, a 4 unit profit if the Bears win and a profit of just over 1/2 unit if the Packers win. Another way to do it–which I would prefer–is to bet two units on the Jets at +400. This will give us three of the four teams remaining which–worst case scenario–means we’ll have a strong plus money position on at least one side of the Super Bowl. Given the parity of the teams remaining, we can hedge enough on the Packers to turn a small profit if necessary and if the Bears upset Green Bay we’re in a position to make a multiunit profit regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl.