Early Super Bowl Prop Bets
Added on Jan 19, 2011 by Jack Thurman in
2 Comments
We’ve discussed Super Bowl proposition bets extensively in the past, and a few sportsbooks have already started posting them for this year’s game. In this post we’ll take a look at several of the prop bets available at Bodog. There may be similar bets available at other books so, as always, shop them around for the best price.
WILD CARD TEAMS PROP:
This bet asks a simple and straightforward question–how many wild card teams will play in the Super Bowl?
1 wild card team -150
2 wild card teams +300
0 wild card teams +300
As we talked about in our article on things that have never happened in a Super Bowl game, there has never been one with two wild card teams. If you think the Jets and Packers will both make the Super Bowl, the better way to play this would be to do a simple two team moneyline parlay on both teams winning their respective conference championship games. Parlay odds vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, but a 2 team parlay on the Jets (+175) and the Packers (-200) would pay back slightly higher than +300. The same thing works for 0 wild card teams–parlay the Bears (+170) and the Steelers (-210) and you get a payout slightly higher than +300. This may not seem like a big deal, but in the long term taking advantage of extra value where you find it is the mantra of serious sports bettors.
The most likely scenario both this season and based on historical precedent is one wild card team in the Super Bowl. At -150, theoretical breakeven is 60% so that’s the threshold of certainty you’d have to have that we end up with a Jets vs Bears or Steelers vs. Packers matchup. If you wanted to take a shot with a big potential payout with no risk here you could do the following, again with 2 team parlays. For the purpose of this example we’ll assume a $100 on each proposition and use an ‘average’ parlay payout for a two teamer of 13/5. The profit amount given applies only in the event of a win, of course, and I’m dropping the fractional (cents) amount to make it easier:
Bet $100 on Steelers (-210)/Packers (-200) parlay = +$121 profit
Bet $100 on Jets (+175)/Bears (+170) parlay= +642 profit
In this case, our ‘worst case scenario’ is a $21 profit (+ $121 from the winning parlay minus $100 from the losing one) and the ‘best case scenario’ is a $542 profit. Of course you could also lose them both and end up with 0 or 2 wild card teams but this is still preferable IMO to laying -150 on the ’1 wild card team’ prop bet. You’re risking just a little bit more with a much higher upside potential. You could also allocate a higher % of the bet to the first parlay and a smaller % of the bet to the underdog parlay.
The important thing to takeaway from this discussion is to think before you bet–there may be a way to essentially bet on the same thing being offered in the prop bet with a better profit upside.
This is definitely the case with another ‘early prop bet’ offered:
EXACT SUPER BOWL MATCHUP:
Steelers vs. Bears +300 (+305)
Steelers vs. Packers +120 (+121)
Jets vs. Bears +600 (+642)
Jets vs. Packers +300 (+312)
The numbers are parenthesis are the payouts on a corresponding two team parlay on the NFC and AFC championship games. The prop bet moneylines are in the ballpark, but the parlay will still yield a better payout. A casual player may not notice the difference and there’s definitely worse plays he could make but if you’re looking to become a serious sports bettor you need to develop the habit of not leaving money on the table.
SUPER BOWL COIN FLIP PROP:
We’ll end with Bodog’s version of a prop that every sportsbook on the planet will offer. In fact, you’ll see variations on the same theme like ‘Which team will win the coin flip’, ‘Which team will receive the opening kickoff’ and so forth:
Heads -105
Tails -105
I use coin flip analogies extensively when explaining concepts like theoretical breakeven percentages and line value to neophytes since everyone knows in the longterm a coin flip is a 50/50 proposition. That makes the ‘true odds’ of heads or tails to be +100. The sportsbooks love props like this, since they’re getting the best of it coming and going.
As the Super Bowl approaches you’ll see all sorts of articles with facts like these:
–In 44 Super Bowls, heads has come up 23 times and tails 21 times
–The NFC has won the toss 30 times, the AFC 14 times
–The NFC has now won 12 straight Super Bowl coin tosses.
–The team that wins the coin toss has won 21 and lost 23 times in the Super Bowl
Now, that business about the NFC winning 12 straight coin tosses is interesting–from a purely statistical standpoint that’s pretty amazing since the odds of that happening are right around 1 in 8,192. Remember this, as you *may* see some lines on the coin toss reflecting this NFC ‘streak’ but the 12 in a row run doesn’t negate the fundamental reality that no matter how many heads you *have* tossed in a row the probability of your next toss being ‘heads’ remains 1 in 2.
2 Comments
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February 1, 3:51 pm
I’m looking for “action” today, any suggestions?
February 3, 12:29 pm
I usually do pretty well at the TGI Fridays bar right after all of the professional women get off work. 4 to 6 PM local time is best.