Dover AAA 400 Preview
Added on Sep 26, 2009 by sbworld in
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AAA 400
Dover International Speedway
Sunday, September 27 1:00pm (ABC)
The second leg of the Chase for the Cup takes place this week at Dover’s famed “Monster Mile”.
Mark Martin showed last week that he is someone to be reckoned with if you want the NASCAR title after taking the win at New Hampshire. The 50 year old veteran with 20 plus years of experience has 40 career wins, is one of the most popular drivers of all time and is a future Hall of Fame inductee but has yet to add a Cup championship to his resume. The time is now for Martin and he has a lot of the NASCAR faithful pulling for him.
As for this week, Dover has been a very good track historically for Roush-Fenway, especially Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth. The trio collectively since 2005 has 27 starts/4 wins/16 Top 5′s/22 Top 10′s and an average finish of 7.52, bad news is 2009 has not been a banner year for Roush or Ford in general.
In the spring race this year Jimmie Johnson dominated leading 298 laps on his way to the win over Tony Stewart and Biffle. By the way JJ is also good here….what a shock.
Here are this weeks favorites and sleepers:
Favorites
Jimmie Johnson
Won handily here in the spring. In 15 career starts has 4 wins/6 Top 5′s/10 Top 10′s with an average finish of 10.4. Had struggled a bit with bad luck in a few races going into the Chase but proved last week that this is Jimmie time with a 4th place finish at New Hampshire. No reason to think he will not be Top 3 material this Sunday and the favorite for the win.
Greg Biffle
This is definitely one of Biff’s best tracks and has openly said that he will be severly disappointed if he is not at the front come Sunday. Think he will be the best chance for Roush this week, to be honest he is the only Roush driver to show up the past month or two having 5 Top 10′s in the last 8 races. His stats at Dover: 14 starts/2 wins/6 top 5′s/9 top 10′s with an average of 10.6. Has not finished worse than 8th in the last 7 races(including 4 straight in the Top 3).
Mark Martin
The “kid” is en fuego right now. 1st, 4th, 5th and 2nd the last four races. Sunday was his 5th win of the year. Bad news for the other Chase contenders, Mark is good at Dover: 29 Top 10′s in 46 career starts(including 9 of the last 11 with a 7.36 average)
Carl Edwards
Even though this team has had some troubles this year you can’t overlook their past performances here. In 10 career starts has a 7.6 average with 1 win/5 Top 5′s /7 Top 10′s (has never finished outside the Top 18). Has 6 straight Top 7 finishes, 5 of those were Top 3′s.
Sleepers
Matt Kenseth
The other member of the Roush trio. Only 3 Top 10′s the last 11 races in 2009 with the highest finish of 8th but like his teammates has great history here. Has 4 Top 5′s in the last 5 starts at Dover. In the one race he didn’t finish Top 5 he blew an engine and finished 35th but not before leading 192 laps (the most of any driver).
Denny Hamlin
In the sleeper category only because of his recent history at Dover, 4 straight finishes of 36th or worse, nothing but bad luck.
Has been one of the hottest drivers the past couple of months, 11 Top 10′s the past 13 races(including 7 Top 5′s and 2 wins) if around at the end a good bet for a Top 5-8 finish maybe even better.
Ryan Newman
Another driver thats been on a consistent roll. Newman has been out performing his teammate Tony Stewart the last 5-6 races. On a steak of 4 straight Top 10′s and only one finish worse than 15th the last 9.
Early in his career this was an outstanding track for Newman with 3 wins in his first 6 starts, has simmered off but did run 8th here in June.
Juan Montoya
Not a great track for JPM but this guy is in it to win it. Great second place run last week at New Hampshire and wouldn’t be surprised if he is a threat again this week.
Jeff Burton
My gut pick of the week. This team does have good history at Dover but RCR has struggled mightily and combine that with rotten luck and 2009 has been a real downer for Jeff Burton. The Childress teams have shown signs of life as of late and Burton was on his way to a Top 10 last week before a late race tangle set him back to 16th. So this team may be on a up tick.
His numbers at Dover: Has finished Top 16 or better in 14 of the last 15 with an average finish of 10.1 that includes 1 win/4 Top 5′s/8 Top 10′s not sure if he will be in the mix for the win but maybe a good play for a match-up or prop.
Should be a good one on Sunday. Lets go racing!
