NHL Betting Preview: New York Islanders at New York Rangers

Added on Mar 15, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NHL

NHL betting on Tuesday will feature the ‘battle of the Big Apple’ as the New York Islanders make the short trip into the city to take on the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers are trying to hold on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference–they’re currently tied with Buffalo. The Islanders are well off the playoff pace but are also well out of the conference basement–they’ve played better in recent weeks after a horrible start to the year.

New York Islanders at New York Rangers
March 15, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

There’s a universal truism that applies to betting on every sport on the planet– on balance, going against teams in ‘must win’ situations is a good value play. This is true for a couple of reasons–the ‘must win’ team is always overpriced and more significantly they *know* they ‘must win’. The opponent in this situation knows it too, but they’re in a position to play much ‘looser’ and often enjoy playing the ‘spoiler’s’ role. That concept seems especially valid here in a crosstown rivalry and at a time of the year where the Islanders have shown some improvement. They’ve won 4 of 6 and have an upgrade at goaltender with Al Montoya who has played very well since joining the team.

The Rangers, meanwhile, have been ‘consistently inconsistent’ this season. They have a losing record at MSG (15-16-3) and have played better on the road. The reasons for a team playing better away from home are many and varied, but at the very least it suggests that their ‘home ice advantage’ will be overvalued relative to the price on the game. That looks to be the case here, and especially against a team that didn’t have to deal with the usual ‘road trip’ logistics of travel. The Rangers have taken 3 of 4 meetings this season, but none were played since late December and the Isles started to rebound after the first of the year. Rangers also have a pair of more important games against Montreal and Pittsburgh on deck. The ‘Broadway Blueshirts’ have a solid advantage in head to head play in recent years, but are just 5-3 at home. This is enough for the Islanders to have eked out a small profit (+0.7 units) in the games at MSG since 2008. We just think the price is too high and that these teams are much more evenly matched at this stage of the season than a game with a -175 favorite would suggest.

Bet New York Islanders +155 over New York Rangers