NHL Betting Odds: Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning

Added on Nov 22, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NHL

Eastern Conference battle in Monday night NHL betting action as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Boston Bruins. Both teams are in second place in their respective divisions with 24 points. Boston trails Northeast leading Montreal by 3 points while Tampa Bay is behind the Southeast leader Washington.

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning
November 22, 2010 4:30 PM Pacific

Despite their hot start we’re not really sold on the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’ve got some great offensive playmakers in Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos and the Bolts are tied for 5th in scoring offense. We just think the Bruins are the much better team. Obviously that starts with defense where Boston has the #1 scoring defense in the NHL allowing a paltry 1.83 goals per game while Tampa Bay is tied for #24 allowing 3.22 goals per game. The betting public hasn’t quite caught on the fact that this isn’t the 2009-2010 Bruins and they’re doing good work on the offensive end as well. Bruins are tied for #9 in scoring offense at 3.00 goals per game. Last year they couldn’t score to save their lives which is why they struggled despite their solid backline play and goaltending. Now they’re a well rounded hockey team who can control tempo and put enough goals on the board to translate their defensive excellence into wins.

Since both the Bruins and Lightning have 24 points you’d assume they’re evenly matched, but their differential is a glaring indicator that Tampa Bay may be more sizzle than steak. Boston’s +19 goal total differential is #2 in the league and their per game average of 1.17 is the best in the NHL. Tampa Bay actually has a -2 total differential–one of only 3 NHL teams with a negative figure in this statistical category and a record over .500. Their per game differential is 0.10 which may not be statistically significant but any time you’re allowing more goals than you score it suggests that a team has work to do regardless of their record.

Tampa Bay does well when they can turn games into shootouts like their 8-7 victory at Philadelphia over the weekend. If you can keep them from scoring they’re not able to compete with upper level opponents. Sure, they can beat bottom feeders like Buffalo and the Islanders when the pucks aren’t going in the net but even on their home ice they struggle against teams that can dictate tempo and play sound defense. Case in point–their last home game, a 4-1 loss to Minnesota and their #3 ranked scoring defense. The Bruins have a better defense and can score goals. Hard to see the Lightning turning this toward their preferred style so we look for the Bruins to grind out a victory. Boston an exceptional road team with a 7-2 record away from the TD BankNorth Garden. We’ll also look Under the total–Boston has only gone Over in 5 games this season and we’re getting that all important 1/2 goal due to Tampa’s offensive strength. Bruins lost 4-3 in their last game–in the previous three spots this season when Boston allowed 3+ goals they went UNDER in the next game. Plus Boston’s third jerseys with the bear on them are some of the coolest in the league though I prefer the older ‘bear head’ version worn by Ray Borque in the picture with this post.

Bet Boston Bruins -105 over Tampa Bay Lightning
Bet Boston/Tampa Under 5′ -110