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Short card of NBA action on the sportsbooks board for Monday so we’ll look to NHL betting instead.  New Jersey is in second place in the Eastern Conference, though they’ve struggled with their offense all season long.  The acquisition of Ilya Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers should help things.  Philadelphia has been up and down all year, but currently they’re in 8th place in the conference though they’ve got 4 teams within 2 points of them in the 9th through 13 place.

New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers
February 8, 4:05 PM Pacific

When betting NHL totals the half goal move from 5 to 5′ is the most important one you’ll find.  Year in and year out, NHL games average 5 goals plus a fraction per contest.  For the sake of handicapping simplicity, we can just assume that the average NHL game will have 5 goals scored.  The fact that there’s no longer ties in the NHL also eliminates a margin of error that the totals player had in years past.

We’ve done a lot this season with a few of the Western Conference teams that play a lot of ‘Under’ games including Phoenix, Calgary and Chicago.  Back East, New Jersey has been the ‘Under’ team of this season but its been difficult to find value on them on any online sports betting site.  They were pegged as an ‘Under’ team long before their Western Conference counterparts and started getting 5 totals with regularity early on.  Tonight, however, we’re getting 5′ for a couple of reasons–there’s the public perception that the addition of Kovalchuk to the lineup will result in more offense.  It’ll help, of course, but the Devils aren’t going to become a wide open, end to end team to accommodate one player–even a player with Kovalchuk’s considerable talents.  Flyers have some offensive pop and the three games this season have produced a total of 17 goals for an average of 5.6 per game.

Despite that, 5 of the last 8 at Philadelphia have gone ‘Under’ the total.  Devils have only gone ‘Over’ in 4 of 15 vs. their own division this season, and have gone ‘Over’ in only 8 of 29 on the road this year.  The extra half goal from 5 to 5′ is important here as 5 of the last nine head to head have seen five goals exactly.  This game may not see that many, but it should stay ‘Under’ the total.

Bet New Jersey/Philadelphia Under 5′ -130

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