Underdogs, Overs Rule Week 1 NFL Betting
Added on Sep 13, 2011 by Jack Thurman in
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The first week of NFL action is in the books and in addition to some exciting on field performance it provided some interesting results at Nevada and off shore sports books. NFL football betting is always a tricky proposition but Week 1 was considered especially so by ‘sharps’ and ‘squares’ alike.
The most intriguing result was the strong bias toward the ‘Over’ in NFL totals play. Heading in to the first week of action there was some speculation that the revised kickoff rules would result in lower scores but that was most definitely not the case. The week started with a 42-34 shootout between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints that sailed Over the posted total of 47.5. It concluded with a pair of ‘Overs’ on Monday Night Football. Overall, 12 of the 16 Week 1 games exceeded the total with 3 playing ‘Under’ and 1 push. There has been a significant upward adjustment in Week 2 totals but despite this revision most games have attracted early play on the ‘Over’.
Most observers noted that many defensive players looked ‘gassed’ late in games, a likely result of the absence of off season conditioning programs in a lockout year. Time will tell if this trend will continue–these things have a way of evening out in both a micro and macro view so as the season progresses and players get into ‘game shape’ don’t be surprised if there’s a couple of weeks with a very strong bias to the ‘Under’.
Side results weren’t quite as..uh…’one sided’. Underdogs went 9-6-1 against the spread in Week 1 of NFL betting action. Heading into the Monday Night double header, home underdogs were at 3-1 both SU and ATS but New England’s win/cover left the final tally at 3-2. The result of that game is worth paying attention to for NFL betting enthusiasts–the Pats dominated the game and made the Dolphins look downright overmatched but despite this disparity Miami was in a position to earn the ‘back door cover’ late in the contest. The moral of the story? It’s always difficult to lay points on the road in NFL football and equally difficult to lay big numbers in any setting. The NFL prides itself on parity and even top level coaches like Bill Belichick are out to win games and not cover pointspreads.
