The Worst Preseason NFL Pointspread Teams

Added on Aug 22, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Everyone knows that handicapping NFL preseason games is a completely different deal from their regular season counterparts. Even the squarest ‘square’ knows that Seattle has been a good ATS pointspread team before this season (they’d won 10 straight ATS before dropping both of their 2010 preseason games to the number) and that Indianapolis doesn’t show up in exhibition games (0-2 SU and ATS in 2010). In this article we’ll look at the teams with the worst records against the NFL pointspread during the past 20 years.

One thing that is clear from looking at this data is that some teams perform better in the role of an underdog than as a favorite and vice versa. Some teams are bad or good in both roles, but most have a clear ‘preference’ for one or the other. Here’s a valuable preseason handicapping lesson that doesn’t even require drilling deeper into the data—heading into the 2010 NFL preseason 21 of the 30 teams had a pointspread record below .500 as a favorite. Only 9 teams had a losing record as a preseason underdog.

Obviously there’s more to preseason success or failure—be it straight up or against the spread—than the name on the jersey. Certain coaches care more about preseason than others, of course, but that mentality can also extend to general managers, owners and even fans. In other words, don’t go betting these situations blindly (for that matter, don’t do anything in sports betting blindly based on a single trend) but these records do provide some interesting insights into how teams have approached exhibition play. These records are against the spread since 1990 and are complete through games of Saturday, August 20, and I’ve added comments with each giving my opinion of how the team will fare in this role going forward. I’ve also been somewhat selective in my approach—for example, Indianapolis is a bad pointspread favorite (18-25 ATS) but now that everyone on the planet knows that they don’t care about preseason football you won’t see them in that role very often. As a result, I’ve eliminated them from this list:

THE WORST PRESEASON POINTSPREAD FAVORITES:

–BUFFALO BILLS: The Bills are 12-22 against the pointspread as favorites since 1990. Buffalo gets hit coming and going by the NFL pointspread. During the early part of this timeframe they were one of the best teams in football and as a result overpriced during the preseason. They’ve gone from the ‘penthouse to the outhouse’ and with their famous struggles on offense during much of the past decade they can’t be trusted to cover any number. Buffalo is a decent ATS favorite in preseason play with a 27-23 record.

–CINCINNATI BENGALS: Cincinnati has had a preseason philosophy similar to the Colts for the past few decades. This dates back to the coaching run of Sam Wyche and current coach Marvin Lewis has a similar philosophy. The Bengals have a 26-25 ATS record as an underdog since 1990, but they’re not a very attractive preseason betting proposition in either role. They beat Philadelphia and easily covered as a small home favorite this week, but that says more about the mess that is the Eagles offense than it does anything else.

–DALLAS COWBOYS: ‘America’s Team’ is a preseason dud with a losing record as an underdog (20-21, though they are 2-0 this year) and an even worse record as a favorite. Cowboys are 18-32 ATS when laying points. With most of the skill positions filled, don’t expect that record to improve this year.

THE WORST PRESEASON POINTSPREAD UNDERDOGS:

–KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: The Chiefs could have made this list in either pointspread role. They’re 14-28 as preseason favorites but they weren’t included in the above group for a very practical reason—they’re such a bad team that they probably won’t be favored this preseason. As an underdog, Kansas City is 15-25 and with the struggles of their offense under former Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis they could go winless SU and ATS this preseason for the second straight year. They may have a shot in their final preseason game against a Green Bay team with playoff aspirations, but this is a team that has covered only one exhibition game since 2007 and is on a 1-13 ATS run.

–PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: The Eagles’ offense is a mess with an inexperienced starter in Kevin Kolb, a backup who doesn’t have the smarts or leadership to be an NFL starter and is only good in ‘gimmick play’ roles and a third stringer in his rookie year. We didn’t include the Eagles in the ‘worst favorites’ for the same reason as Kansas City though they’re 18-32 ATS when laying points. They’re no treasure as an underdog either at 14-20 ATS. In theory, they have a shot at the cover in each of their remaining preseason games (at Kansas City and home against the Jets) but the less Kolb plays the more Vick plays and that means interceptions a-plenty.

–ST. LOUIS RAMS: The Rams are 17-19 ATS as a favorite, but 20-28 ATS as an underdog. That’s not especially awful, but as noted in the introduction NFL teams have a better preseason record as dogs than as favorites across the board. Were it not for a disastrous 2006 preseason (0-4 ATS) they wouldn’t have made this list. St. Louis covered 3 of 4 preseason games last year and was 2-2 ATS in 2008 and 2007. Rookie QB Sam Bradford is going to be a good NFL player and the more he plays the better he’ll get. There’s not much behind him (particularly if A.J. Feeley’s injury keeps him out for any length of time) but against two playoff minded opponents the rest of the way there’s nothing inherently distasteful about backing the Rams.

In our next installment coming early in the week we’ll look at the best preseason pointspread teams in both the favorite and underdog role.