NFL Week 10 Picks: Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Added on Nov 13, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

This game obviously isn’t the marquee matchup of this weekend’s NFL betting card, but sometimes its possible to find value in very ugly games. The 2-6 Detroit Lions head out on the road to play the 0-8 Buffalo Bills. Both teams are coming off of hard fought losses–Detroit lost to the New York Jets while Buffalo lost to the Chicago Bears in Toronto.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
November 14, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

The Detroit Lions are only 2-6 SU but considering that they’ve already matched their combined win total for the last two seasons that’s definitely an improvement. The Lions’ pointspread record also reflects their overall upgrade in talent–they’re 7-1 against the spread. That’s impressive and a sign that they’ve not quit this season despite injuries to starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. At some point, however, that record also results in Detroit being overvalued by the public. They’ll be without Stafford here and once again will turn to veteran Shaun Hill. Hill is listed as ‘probable’ on the NFL injury report but the plan is for him to start the game.

They’ll be facing a Buffalo Bills team that is desperate to get their first win of the season. The Bills haven’t exactly turned things around since handing the starting quarterback job over to Ryan Fitzpatrick but they have been more competitive. Buffalo is 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, losing by 3 points against formidable opponents on the road (Baltimore, Kansas City) and against Chicago in a ‘home’ game at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. We think they have a good chance to break through for their first victory of the year against a Lions team that is 0-4 away from home and currently on a 24 game road losing streak. The local media in Buffalo is reporting that coach Chan Gailey is planning to use rookie running back CJ Spiller more often down the stretch and against this class the combination of Fitzpatrick’s energy and Spiller’s talent could spell trouble. This is the first time all year that Detroit has been less than a +10 road underdog and while that’s partially due to a tough road schedule we’re thinking that the ‘square’ bettors are going to blindly back the Lions down the stretch due to their ATS success in the first half of the year. Most books have this game posted with Buffalo a -2′ or -3 favorite but 5 Dimes has it at Bills -1 -125. We’re not ready to trust Buffalo to win by a margin, but this is going to be their best shot at getting one in the ‘win’ column.

Bet Buffalo Bills -1 -125 over Detroit Lions