NFL Preseason Betting Free Picks: Tennessee at Seattle

Added on Aug 13, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Week One of Preseason NFL betting action continues on Saturday with seven games, and we’ll take a look at late game on the board as the Seattle Seahawks host the Tennessee Titans. Seahawks are coming off of a dismal 5-11 SU/6-10 ATS record in 2009, but there’s a lot of optimism in ‘The Jet City’ with the debut of former USC coach Pete Carroll. The Titans are off a ho-hum season that saw them finish with an 8-8 SU/6-9-1 ATS mark.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
August 14, 2010—7:00 PM Pacific

For those of us who handicap sports professionally, in most cases we like to stay one step ahead of the general public. Once the public catches on to a trend and/or system, most sharp players like to move on to something else. In theory, this is a sound practice as once the public starts to ‘get wise’ situations that produced profits in the past get factored into the line and we lose value. This game, however, presents an exception to this rule and despite the line reflecting a situational trend we like the fundamentals of this play.

Over the past three years there has been no better preseason NFL investment than the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has covered nine straight preseason games and 11 of their last 12. They’re 10-2 straight up over the past three years as well. Of course it could be argued that much of that preseason success left when the Holmgren/Mora regime left town, but for this week at least coaching philosophy is no issue. Historically, coaches making their NFL debut are strong preseason plays and we really like Pete Carroll in this spot. There’s been no shortage of critics saying that he won’t hack it in the NFL, and while it won’t silence them completely until the Seahawks win in the regular season it’s obvious that he’d like to open with a win—and particularly in front of the home fans at Qwest Field.

The Titans’ preseason record is a mixed bag—they were 2-2-1 ATS in 2009, 1-3 in 2008 and 3-1 in 2007. Tennessee is pretty well set on offense, which is a strike against them here as Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson won’t see much action here. The big question in Tennessee this season is on defense—the Titans lost their best defensive player, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch to free agency. They drafted some promising young talent on that side of the ball (in particular first round pick Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech) but it’ll take some time for them to gel.

Lot of offensive jobs up for grabs in Seattle means that even the veterans will be looking to put their best foot forward in the preseason. The team just signed running back Adrian Peterson, who’ll compete for playing time with Justin Forsett and Julius Jones for the starting job. Even longtime starting QB Matt Hasselbeck with have to be looking over his shoulder with the team’s acquisition of former Clemson standout Charlie Whitehurst. Former Buffalo starter (and more recently the starting QB for the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives) J.P. Losman is also on the roster. Hasselbeck likely has the inside track for the starters job, but he’s getting up there in years and has always been injury prone. He’s been limited in practice this week due to a hamstring injury. Whitehurst signed a 2 year, $10 million deal before the season and with that investment they’re going to give him every opportunity to compete for the job that he’s expected to assume when Hasselbeck’s contract runs out after this year.

In conclusion, we’ve got a good situation with Seattle’s preseason success and their new coach making his NFL debut at home. We like their depth at quarterback and wide receiver (Mike Williams and Golden Tate will be seeing a lot of passes) against a rebuilding Tennessee defense, while we expect the Titans to keep their star players under wraps. Game opened Seattle -3 and has moved to -4, but we like the Seahawks to win this by a touchdown or more.

Bet Seattle -4 over Tennessee