NFL Preseason Betting Free Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Added on Aug 27, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Week Three of the NFL preseason is considered to be a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the regular season and is usually one of the stronger weeks from a betting standpoint. In this post we’ll look at a totals play in the Saturday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is 0-2 on the preseason straight up but 1-1 ATS covering at Philadelphia in Week 1. Tampa Bay is 1-1 SU but 2-0 against the number in the 2010 preseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
August 28 4:30 PM Pacific

Jacksonville’s head coach Jack Del Rio is known as a no-nonsense, old school guy during the regular season but for whatever reason he approaches the preseason more like ‘run and shoot’ disciple and former Hawaii coach June Jones. Entering this week’s contest, Del Rio’s Jags have gone Over the total in 16 of 22 preseason games. Both of the Jags’ 2010 games have sailed over the total with 55 and 53 points in the two games. We look for the same thing to happen here.

Fortunately, Tampa Bay’s season to date performance is keeping this total low. The perception that the Bucs are an ‘under’ team has been further enhanced this week due to an injury that will keep starting quarterback Josh Freeman out of action for at least the rest of the preseason. Despite this injury, Tampa’s YTD scoring performance is somewhat misleading—they started the year with a 10-7 loss at Miami that was played in a brutal wind and rainstorm that hampered both offenses. In their second game, they beat Kansas City 20-15 despite Freeman’s injury with his backups Josh Johnson and Rudy Carpenter both throwing for touchdowns.

It’s important to note that both of Jacksonville’s big ‘Over’ performances this season have come despite starting QB David Garrard seeing much playing time. He’ll see his most extensive action of the preseason in this contest and that can only help this handicap. Luke McCown has seen most of the action this preseason, and the ‘Over’ will still be in good shape when Garrard leaves and he enters the game.

The most significant component of this handicap may be the fact that Jacksonville’s first team defense hasn’t been very good in the preseason. They gave up 16 points to Philadelphia in the opening game (the same Eagles team that managed only 9 total points against Cincy the following week) and 24 points to Miami in Week 2. With Jacksonville’s offense taking care of their end of this totals play, and the Jags’ defense making the Tampa Bay offense look better than they really are we should be in good shape for another ‘Over’ victory.

Bet Tampa Bay/Jacksonville Over 36’