NFL Preseason Betting Free Picks: Carolina at Baltimore

Added on Aug 12, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The first full week of preseason NFL betting action gets underway on Thursday, and we’ll take a look at the nationally televised ESPN game between the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are obviously in better shape heading into the season than the Panthers, who find themselves without a solid starting quarterback for the first time in years. Baltimore is looking to return to the playoffs, where they were bounced last year in the Conference Semifinals by the Indianapolis Colts.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
August 12, 5:00 PM Pacific

At this point in NFL exhibition campaign, most teams are in roughly the same situation and the betting lines reflect this. No team is more than a -3’ to -4 point favorite, reflecting the fact that the qualitative differences between the teams is minimal and giving the standard ‘home field advantage’ to the host team. Starters see very little playing time in Week 1 of the preseason, and most of the game becomes a contest between the lower rungs of the depth chart.

The totals on early preseason games also display a lot of uniformity, with low scoring games being the norm. This week’s biggest total is a 35 on Thursday’s New England/New Orleans game and the smallest is 32’. As is the case with the pointspread, the total reflects the fact that the teams have a lot of work to do in terms of preparation and with the ‘impact players’ at the skill positions spending most of the contest on the sidelines Week 1 exhibition games become a battle of field goal kickers.

So the best way to handicap week 1 NFL preseason games is to look for situations where something about the game will cause it to deviate from the norm. In this contest, there are a few personnel issues that could make this a good spot to play the game Over the total. The most significant is the Panthers’ quarterback situation in the first game following the release of longtime starter Jake Delhomme. Matt Moore will start the game, but Panthers’ coach John Fox has made clear that he’d like to get all four of the quarterbacks on the roster into the contest at some point. Notre Dame product Jimmy Clausen will definitely make his NFL debut, with Hunter Cantwell and Tony Pike also on the roster. Moore probably has the inside track to win the starting job, but all three of the other signal callers could easily secure the backup gig with a strong preseason showing.

The Panthers will also play a number of wide receivers looking to earn a spot on the roster with Steve Smith on the shelf due to a broken arm. Dwayne Jarrett, Kenny Moore and Brandon LaFell will get a lot of playing time throughout the exhibition campaign. The Panthers are in good shape at running back, so obviously the focus will be on the passing game throughout this game as well as the preseason as a whole.

Carolina is also rebuilding their defense and particularly the defensive line, which plays into Baltimore’s offensive strength. The Ravens have a ton of depth along the offensive line and at the running back position and should be able to move the ball well. The Baltimore defense is solid as usual, but there are some questions in the secondary.

Ultimately, it’s a situation where each team’s offensive strengths play into their opponent’s defensive weaknesses. With Carolina needing to give their young QB corps as much of an opportunity to showcase their skills as possible, they’ll be throwing the ball a lot. This presents a spot where there will be more scoring than the usual Week 1 preseason game and a good chance that this one exceeds the low total.

Bet Carolina/Baltimore Over 34