NFL Pointspread Free Picks: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Added on Nov 11, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Sunday NFL betting offers an important AFC matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium in South Florida. The Titans are tied for 1st place in the AFC South with a 5-2 record. Miami is in third place in the AFC East at 4-4. Both teams are coming off a road loss, with Tennessee falling to San Diego and Miami losing to Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
November 14, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

It’s no secret that the Dolphins are an inconsistent team as evidenced by their 4-4 record. As we discussed last week in our losing play on Miami at Baltimore, their schizophrenia manifests itself in a strange way–the Dolphins are a strong pointspread investment on the road and as an underdog. Even after the SU/ATS loss to the Ravens Miami has gone 4-1 SU on the road this year and are 14-6 ATS mark in away games since 2008. They’ve also covered in 10 of their last 11 spots as an underdog. At home its a different matter–Miami is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on their own field this year. Going back even further, they’ve only covered 6 of their last 26 games at home. Since 2008 they’re 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less.

At least in the past few seasons, this is the time of year the Titans really put it together. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 November games SU going 7-1-2 ATS. They’ve been a profitable favorite with a 16-11 ATS record since 2008. In the same timeframe, they’re 12-8 ATS on the road and 5-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or less. Tennessee signed Randy Moss during their bye week and in the short term at least he should help upgrade their passing game. In any case, the Titans’ offense has been far more productive than Miami’s which will bench QB Chad Henne this week in favor of Chad Pennington. Pennington is a capable backup, but they’re turning to him in this spot out of pure desperation. These teams have a history of playing tight games against each other on the Dolphins’ home field–Miami has won 5 of 6 SU but Tennessee has covered four of six. We respect Miami’s toughness, but with them off a physical game against the Ravens and Tennessee well rested off a bye week we’re thinking the Titans’ superior skill players on offense will make the difference here.

Bet Tennessee Titans -1 over Miami Dolphins