NFL Playoff Totals Betting: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Added on Jan 08, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The NFL playoffs get underway on Saturday with the New Orleans Saints traveling to Seattle to face the improbable NFC West champion Seahawks. The Seahawks are the first NFL postseason team with a losing record but by virtue of their division title they get to host the defending Super Bowl champs. We posted our analysis of the side play earlier this week and now we’ll turn our attention to the total.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
January 8, 2011 1:30 PM Pacific

By now even the ‘squarest square’ knows that Seattle is a monumentally bad team by NFL playoff standards and that they’re the first side to make the postseason with a sub .500 record. Even so, I’m not sure that even their 7-9 record conveys just how monumentally bad the Seahawks are by *any* metric, not just for NFL playoff teams. Let’s look at the numbers–Seattle has the #28 ranked total offense, the #19 passing offense, the #31 rushing offense and the #23 scoring offense. They have the #27 total defense, the #27 passing defense, the #21 rushing defense and the #25 scoring defense. Many teams–even playoff teams–fare poorly in one or more statistical categories but make up for it in another. New England, for example, has the #30 pass defense but makes up for it in other areas–like their #1 ranked scoring offense. Teams that are ranked in the lower 1/3 of the league in *every* statistical category are more typically preparing for the NFL draft and not the playoffs.

Handicapping NFL totals is similar to handicapping the side–here’s how I do it: I come up with a projected total based on the raw statistical data and then evaluate it and modify it based on what financial types would call ‘forward looking’ criteria. Factors that can change the ‘raw total’ are weather, injuries, matchups, etc. I assign a point value to these extenuating factors, come up with a revised total and compare it to the one posted by our friends in Nevada and ‘offshore’. Between the guidance provided by this number and a little intuition based on nearly two decades of handicapping sports I determine whether an OV/UN position is strong enough to take a wagering position on. In this case, “my” number suggests a total score in the low 50′s.

The weather forecast isn’t great for Saturday’s game, but it’s pretty typical for the Pacific Northwest this time of year: temps in the low 40′s with a chance of rain. In theory this should be a concern–especially for a ‘dome team playing outdoors’–but the Saints’ performance has historically been pretty solid outside on real grass. Their 3 year record of 10-7 SU/ATS with 9 OV/8 UN definitely doesn’t indicate a dramatic dropoff without a roof over their head. The Saints have gone Over in 17 of their L29 games at this price range (between 42 and 49′ points). Seattle’s O/U numbers further solidify our position on the Over–Seahawks are OV in 11 of 15 this year including 10 of 12 as an underdog and 6 of 7 against teams with winning records.

Seattle has no running game to speak of, so Matt Hasselbeck (who’ll get the start here) will have to pass. If he’s effective, Seattle can put some points on the board. Of course he’s got a 12 to 17 TD to INT ratio so he’s more likely to throw the ball to the other team. Either scenario works for our purposes. On defense, it’s very unlikely that Seattle’s #27 passing defense can do much to stop Drew Brees who has passed for 4620 yards and 33 TDs this season. Brees has thrown his share of INTs this year, but only 5 teams have fewer picks than Seattle.

Bet New Orleans/Seattle Over 44′