NFL Football Betting Picks: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Added on Sep 09, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Two teams trying to return to playoff contention will battle in Kansas City as the Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills. This game has seen fairly steady betting since the opening line was posted–it opened -6 and hasn’t moved off of that price at most sports books offshore and in Nevada.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
September 11, 2011 10:00 AM Pacific

The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t a bad team, but they’re not as good as the pricing for this game would suggest. Matt Cassel is a journeyman quarterback at best and we’re of the opinion that the better quarterback will be on the other side of the field in the person of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buffalo started horribly in 2010 but really started to galvanize once Fitzpatrick took over the starting job. The Bills went 4-4 SU in their last 8 games and covered 5 of their last 7 spots as underdogs. Among those ATS victories was a solid performance on this field where the Bills lost to the Chiefs 13-10 but covered the spread as +7 point underdogs.

The current price suggests some improvement in the Bills (one point worth) but we’re not sure if it accurately reflects the stagnant state of the Chiefs’ franchise. Kansas City lost offensive coordinator Charlie Weis in the off season and while he may not have impressed at the helm of Notre Dame’s program is a solid NFL assistant. The Chiefs didn’t look good in the preseason and we’re thinking that the public may have incorrectly dismissed their struggles as those of a team that just doesn’t care about the exhibition season. They don’t, of course, but their lack of preseason competitiveness could have obfuscated some more serious problems.

Moreover, Kansas City has been a poor investment in recent years both as a favorite (4-7 ATS) and at home (7-10 ATS). They’re also 10-15 ATS in conference play. Buffalo was only 2-6 SU on the road last year but came with an effort just about every week, posting a record of 5-3 ATS. This Bills’ team is improving, the Chiefs are regressing–or at least standing still–and lets not forget that one of Todd Haley’s first moves in his first preseason on the KC sideline was firing offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. Gailey is now the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, and we expect a very good focus and effort from his team.

Bet Buffalo Bills +6 over Kansas City Chiefs