NFL Conference Championship Weather Updates

Added on Jan 22, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Any decent football betting lines feed provides weather information, but they don’t answer the really salient question: will the weather impact the outcome of the game relative to side or total wagering? In my experience handicapping–and I’ve bet on sports since before I could legally drive–the weather is usually irrelevant to the outcome of a NFL football game. NFL football players are hard dudes. You’d have to go to a maximum security prison to find harder dudes–and you’d probably find a few NFL football players while you’re there. These guys aren’t going to be thrown off their game by cold weather, snow or sloppy field conditions.

Occasionally, however, there are instances where the weather can play a role in the outcome. The typical winter weather in Seattle didn’t exactly help the New Orleans Saints, and everyone remembers the New England Patriots’ beatdown of the Bears at Soldier Field. In both of these cases, the weather was a factor to some extent. Even when the weather is a factor that doesn’t justify a kneejerk reaction to playing the game Under the total–perhaps the most common mistake made by inexperienced sports bettors. In the case of the Patriots/Bears the weather favored the offense–Chicago’s pass coverage had their speed negated by the slippery field and obviously Tom Brady and his receivers *know* where the ball is going. The Bears defenders have to react, and making quick cuts is harder on a slippery field. An instance like this where bad weather favors the offense is very common, especially in snowy weather.

So let’s take a look at what we can expect from the weather in both of Sunday’s games:

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP–GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS:

Both teams obviously have great familiarity with playing in cold weather and wintry conditions, but Sunday’s game time weather isn’t going to be that bad and will seem like San Diego compared to the AFC Championship game forecast. The game goes at 12:00 PM Pacific and the forecast is for clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the high teens and light winds. For a football game in Chicago in late January the weather is realistically as good as you can expect and shouldn’t have any significant impact on the game. Some quarterbacks have problems with the wind at Soldier Field when its gusty, but with wind speeds between 5 and 8 MPH that shouldn’t be an issue.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP–NEW YORK JETS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS:

The best thing that can be said about the game time weather in Pittsburgh is that it could be worse. The area is expecting light snow showers tonight and early tomorrow, but the skies are expected to clear up before the 3:30 Pacific kickoff between the Steelers and Jets. And anyone who lives north of the Mason-Dixon line knows what happens when the cloud cover dissipates this time of year–it gets cold. Temperature at kickoff will be a balmy 14 degrees F, but once you factor in a light wind and the humidity its going to feel like 5 degrees. Oddly enough, it’ll feel slightly warmer as the actual temperature goes down during the evening since the winds are going to lessen and some more clouds will roll back in. Of course the fact that it’ll feel like 7 or 8 degrees as opposed to 5 degrees is what us handicappers call ‘statistically insignificant’.

It’s going to be bitter cold for the fans, but obviously they’ll be plenty liquored up by gametime. With no precipitation in the forecast and minimal wind the biggest issue will be any residual moisture on the field which could become a football version of ‘black ice’. Pro football players are good about keeping warm during the game, so despite several hysterical pieces in the mainstream sports media about the cold from my vantage point it sure doesn’t look like it’ll play any part in determining the outcome.

You can read our preview of the AFC Conference Championship game here and the NFC Championship game here.