NFL Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Added on Sep 28, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

This game features a matchup of a couple of NFC teams that used to be divisional rivals under the old competitive format, but now find themselves in drastically different situations in separate divisions. The Atlanta Falcons are in a three way tie atop the NFC South with Tampa Bay and New Orleans, while the 49ers are 0-3 and in the NFC West basement.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
October 3, 2010—10:00 AM Pacific

A recurrently successful handicapping concept in the NFL is simply looking for opportunities to go ‘against’ teams off of excellent performances and playing ‘on’ teams that are off bad performances. While the mainstream sports media and ‘square’ players like to get hung up on generalities, the sharp sports handicapper knows that teams are seldom as good as they look at their best, nor they as bad as they appear at their worst. In this game we’ve got both concepts at play as the Atlanta Falcons enter off a satisfying rivalry win on the road against the defending Superbowl champion New Orleans Saints and with the Niners coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs that prompted the dismissal of San Fran offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye.

In other words, one team is in a ‘letdown’ spot after a big victory, while the other is in a ‘bounceback’ spot after a substandard performance. One team is being dismissed out of hand by the squares and chattering classes in the mainstream sports media, while the other is being anointed as a NFC Championship contender. Most significantly in terms of line value, one team is being overvalued in the pricing of this game while one team is being undervalued. And you’ve no doubt figured out by now how we’re going to play this.

The Niners are in a tough spot at the moment, but it’s still premature to write them off as being ‘done’ for the season. They play in the weakest division in the NFL and after this game they face Philadelphia, Oakland, St. Louis and Tampa Bay at home and Carolina and Denver on the road. Going 5-1 or even 6-0 in that stretch is very realistic and that would have them right back in the thick of the playoff hunt. From a personnel standpoint, there’s really nothing wrong with this team. Quarterback Alex Smith needs to become more comfortable within the offense, but that’ll come with time. He’s got plenty of weapons to work with and despite the switch at offensive coordinator there shouldn’t be too much problem with continuity as QB Coach Mike Johnson takes over the role. Defensively, the physically intimidating Niners should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against the more finesse oriented Falcons.

Don’t forget that Mike Singletary gets results and his team has responded to him with strong efforts since he was hired. He’s got a 15-8-6 ATS mark during his coaching tenure in San Francisco and are 8-1 in their last 9 spots as an underdog. The problems with this team may have been corrected with some tactical adjustments on offense, and at the very least we expect a spirited effort from Singletary’s team this week that’ll get them an outright victory. We’re getting nice line value due to the differing public perception surrounding the teams at this point, but we don’t think we’ll need the points.

Bet San Francisco 49ers +7 over Atlanta Falcons