NFL Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Added on Sep 14, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Week two NFL betting takes us to Ford Field in the Motor City as the Detroit Lions host the Philadelphia Eagles in what could be a battle of backup quarterbacks. The Eagles lost to Green Bay in week 1, and could be without starter Kevin Kolb for this game. Detroit will definitely be without their starter, Matthew Stafford, as he separated his shoulder in the opening game against Chicago.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
September 19 2010, 10:00 AM Pacific

It’ll most likely be Michael Vick versus Shaun Hill in this matchup, and that sets up a good opportunity to go against an Eagles team that is a mess on offense as road favorites. One of my Sports Betting World colleagues did a nice job outlining Michael Vick’s liabilities as a starting quarterback, and even with Matthew Stafford on the sidelines his backup Shaun Hill is a much more capable NFL signal caller. He may not be as fast, but in terms of a NFL quarterback’s job description he’ll be the best quarterback in this matchup.

For whatever reason, the public is overestimating both Vick and this Eagles team and underestimating the Lions. Yet this is a classic example of teams headed in different directions. The Eagles are going to struggle until their young offense matures, and there’s no shortage of questions on the defensive side of the ball as well. We generally like Detroit coach Jim Schwartz, and the team did a nice job in their recent drafts. The secondary is still an issue, and as my colleague noted in the aforementioned article that’s the flip side of the public perception that Vick will have a big game against the Lions—they’ll challenge to beat them with his arm and since when has he ever been able to hit open receivers?

Don’t look now, but the Lions are putting together a very solid defensive front. They drafted Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, and brought in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. Detroit sacked Bears’ quarterback Kyle Orton four times in a competitive 19-14 road loss. Vick may be more mobile than Orton, but he’s also playing behind a porous offensive line that just lost its starting center (Jamaal Jackson). The Eagles also lost Pro Bowl fullback Leonard Weaver, who was the only semblance of a power running game on this team and the only veteran at a skill position on offense. On defense, Philly lost Clay Guida lookalike and Salt Lake City, Utah native Stewart Bradley.

Detroit also has a talented young running back in Jahvid Best who scored two touchdowns in the loss to the Bears. He could be due for a breakout week in his first regular season home game against a vulnerable Philly defense. The Lions also have more experience in their receiving corps as well as a quarterback more capable of getting them the football.

Ultimately, this is a game where the line is completely out of whack due to the history of these teams and the incorrect public perceptions that accompany it. Let’s do a little pointspread math—Detroit was a +6’ road underdog at Chicago against a decent Bears team with a veteran NFL quarterback and a solid running game. That implies that on a neutral field, the Bears are a 3 point better team (assuming the standard 3.5 point home field advantage). With Philly priced as a -3’ point home favorite, it implies that they’re a full touchdown better than Detroit on a neutral field—and also suggests they’re 4 points better than the Bears? Ultimately this is a matchup between two teams with young offenses, and we think the Lions’ skill people are further along in the development process. We also think Detroit’s offensive front is better, and they’ll challenge Vick to beat them with his arm. That’s always a scary proposition. This is a winnable game for the Lions and we’re getting more than a field goal at home. Detroit wins this one outright.

Bet Detroit Lions +3’ over Philadelphia Eagles