It’ll be a battle of brothers on Sunday night as Eli Manning and the New York Giants head to Indianapolis to face Peyton Manning’s Colts.  The Giants beat Carolina at home in Week 1, while the Colts lost a tough game to Houston on the road.  Indy will be under a lot of pressure to avoid an 0-2 start to the season, and this sets up a nice betting opportunity in this nationally televised game.

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts
September 19, 2010   5:20 PM Pacific

The betting public has a tendency to overreact to short term performances, and that’s especially true in the early part of the NFL season.  The knowledgeable handicapper avoids making snap judgement of a team’s ability based on one game, and that can set up some good value opportunities.  That’s the case here as the Giants take on the Colts.  New York’s win over Carolina and Indy’s loss at Houston has resulted in a more favorable price on the home team which reflects the aforementioned public sentiment.

The reality of this matchup is far different from the one reflected in the pointspread.  Despite their season opening win over Carolina, the Giants didn’t look particularly sharp in that game.  Eli Manning threw three interceptions and a lost fumble gave the Giants a total of four turnovers in that game.  Carolina turned the ball over five times, so New York’s careless play didn’t really cost them.  Indianapolis, meanwhile, lost to a much improved Houston team that could find itself in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.  They had trouble containing the Texans’ Arian Foster, who rushed for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Despite the loss, Peyton Manning was as sharp as ever as he compiled 433 yards passing and threw for three touchdowns with no interceptions.  The public perception, however, has resulted in an overreaction that implies that the Colts are ‘down’ this year.  The reality is that Houston is a far better team–and particularly at home–than the public is giving them credit for.

New York struggled on defense last season, which resulted in a coaching turnover at the position.  The Giants brought in Perry Fewell to revamp the defense and he’s working to implement a new scheme based more on zone coverage.  That’s bad news for the Giants, since even if they were already comfortable in the new defensive philosophy it’s never easy trying to contain Peyton Manning.  The Giants’ pass rush is decent but so is the Colts’ offensive line.  A bigger problem is the secondary, which Manning should be able to rip to shreds with the embarrassment of riches he has at the wide receiver position (Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon) not to mention tight end Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai who is one of the best pass catching running backs in the NFL.

On defense, the Colts are highly underrated and return all of the starters from last year’s team that finished 9th in total defense.  The Giants offensive line was middle of the road to begin with and suffered a number of injuries against Carolina which will allow Dwight Freeney to give Eli Manning fits.  Tactically, its a bad matchup for a Giants team that managed to win in Week 1 without playing particularly well.  Look for Peyton Manning to have another big game and for the Colts to win this one going away.

Bet Indianapolis Colts -5 over New York Giants

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