NFL Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins

Added on Oct 11, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

With the final game of the week underway as we speak, we’ll turn our attention to week 6 NFL betting and start with the Sunday Night game as the Indianapolis Colts travel to DC to take on the Washington Redskins. Indy got the win over a scrappy Kansas City team on Sunday, though it wasn’t a particularly impressive performance. Washington is also off a victory over the Green Bay Packers and both teams will enter this contest with identical 3-2 records.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins
October 17, 2010 5:20 PM Pacific

The Colts got the win they needed against the Kansas City Chiefs, but Peyton Manning didn’t play particularly well. Manning threw for 244 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. The fact that many sports outlets led with the news that Manning *didn’t* throw a TD or pass for 300+ yards should underscore the rarity of an ‘off day’ for arguably the best quarterback in pro football. We don’t expect lightning to strike twice, and particularly against a Washington pass defense ranked #31 in the NFL. The Redskins have been fortunate so far in that they’ve not faced many elite level quarterbacks at the top of their game. On the other hand, the fact that their pass defense is ranked so low *despite* this fortuitous schedule doesn’t bode well here. They did a relatively good job keeping the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers in check last week, but Green Bay has any number of problems on offense that makes that task significantly easier. Washington caught the Cowboys and Tony Romo in the opening week when they were struggling, took advantage of Michael Vick’s injury when they played Philadelphia and lost to the Rams with their depleted wide receiver corps. The only top level quarterback they’ve faced in anything less than a difficult situation was Houston’s Matt Schaub who shredded the ‘skins secondary for 468 yards and 3 touchdowns.

We’ve been big on Schaub since he was Michael Vick’s backup in Atlanta, but as good as he is he’s not in Manning’s league. No one is. In terms of efficiency and consistant excellence you can make a pretty compelling case that Manning is the best quarterback in NFL history. I’d include Steve Young, Joe Montana and Dan Marino in the conversation, but Manning is definitely up there. If Schaub and the young Houston offense can make mincemeat out of the Redskins’ pass defense you can imagine what Manning and the well oiled Colts’ machine is capable of. Manning may say the right things in interviews and he’s no doubt happy that his team one despite his substandard outing, but in reality you know it pisses him off and he’ll be looking for a strong ‘bounce back’ effort on national TV.

The Colts do have some injury issues–running back Joseph Addai was injured in the win over Kansas City and is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game. Mike Hart stepped in for Addai and performed well, but this is a matchup where the Colts won’t need to establish the running game to be effective. Even with Anthony Gonzalez on the shelf, Manning still has plenty of targets including Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and arguably the best pass catching tight end in the NFL, Dallas Clark. Historically, Washington has been a team that prided itself on defense but that side of the ball is a ‘work in progress’ under new coach Mike Shanahan and enters this game ranked #32 in yards allowed. Indy’s defense hasn’t been quite as sharp as last year, but they’re still better than that. The Colts are significantly better against the pass (ranked #16) than against the run, and they catch the Skins at a good time with Clinton Portis out of the lineup.

The Colts have been a good ATS play on the road in recent years–they’re 14-6 SU/12-7 ATS in the L3 seasons. The Redskins, meanwhile, have not been a strong home play with a 9-10 SU/7-11 ATS record. In short priced games like this the Colts have been at their best–they’re on a 10-5 ATS run with a pointspread of +3 to -3. With a motivated Manning playing on the big stage against a vulnerable secondary, we look for Indy to win easily and cover this number.

Bet Indianapolis Colts -3 over Washington Redskins