NFL Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

Added on Sep 09, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The first Sunday of the NFL regular season features several compelling matchups, and we’ll look at an AFC battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots. Both teams are looking to atone for disappointing efforts in the NFL playoffs a year ago, and this early game could have serious implications down the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
September 12, 10:00 AM Pacific

If you’re a serious boxing historian, it’s impossible to have a conversation about Mike Tyson with someone who was a fan of ‘Iron Mike’ in his prime. To these people Tyson is, was and will always be ‘the baddest man on the planet’. They’ll argue that in his prime Tyson could have lined up Joe Louis, Muhammad Ali and Rocky Marciano and beat them on the same night. Ironically, most of the serious boxing experts I know agree that if Tyson and Ali fought 100 times ‘The Greatest’ would prevail in 99.9 of those fights (to wit—watch what Lennox Lewis did to Tyson with his superior height and reach. Now multiply that ten times and that’s what Ali would have been able to do with his skills and physical gifts). Now, there’s no real harm in people remembering Tyson at his destructive post Michael Spinks prime—it’s basically nostalgia mixed with some delusion. It does drive boxing geeks like myself nuts when they’re unable or unwilling to put his career in a larger context or admit that he had weaknesses.

In many ways, the New England Patriots are the Mike Tyson of the NFL circa 2010. They’re still viewed through the myopic lens of their three Superbowls and their 2007 undefeated season—which ended with the Pats getting KO’d by the Buster Douglas-esque New York Giants. Ever since the shocking loss that left the all time regular season win leader relegated to Superbowl runner up, the Patriots have been trying to regain their swagger. The problem is that this isn’t the same team they were in 2007—Bill Belichick is still a great coach, but the team is aging on both sides of the ball. That was evident in New England’s blowout home loss to Baltimore in the 2009 playoffs, and it’ll be evident in this game as well. Tom Brady is still a great quarterback, and he’s got solid receivers in Wes Welker and Randy Moss. The offensive line isn’t what it once was, nor is the rushing game. The Pats’ defense is also rebuilding and will have to do so without one of its most valuable—and unheralded–contributors in lineman Ty Warren.

Cincinnati may not be given the respect they deserve here since they basically sleepwalked through the preseason. The Bengals are no joke, and are loaded on both sides of the ball. Carson Palmer is looking sharper and more confident than ever, and he’s got no shortage of game breaking wide receivers to throw to—including a couple of guys you may have heard of named Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco. They’ve also got a bruising running back in Cedric Benson and a defense ranked #4 in total defense last year that could be even better this year. This is old ‘two teams headed in different directions’ situation, but the public perception that New England is still the dominant team of earlier in the decade has drastically influenced the price. This game opened with the Pats a -6 point home favorite and has been bet down to 4.5 or 4.

During the past two years, Cincinnati has been one of the best underdog plays in the NFL. They were 7-2 ATS as dogs last season (which was good for bettors since they were 0-8 ATS as favorites). They’ve been underdogs 11 times in their past 19 games, and they’re 9-2 ATS in that stretch with an 8-3 SU record. They’ve also covered 7 of the last 9 meetings with New England including 3 of the last 4 at home. Even though the line has moved against us, we’re still getting more than a field goal but we don’t think it’ll come into play as the Bengals win outright by a TD.

Bet Cincinnati Bengals +4’ over New England Patriots