NFL Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Added on Oct 20, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

More Sunday NFL betting action as the Baltimore Ravens try to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North while the Buffalo Bills are just looking to win a game. Buffalo is one of only two winless teams left (Carolina is the other) and this isn’t the best setting to be looking for a victory.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
October 24, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

In theory, there’s value to be had betting on ‘ugly’ teams like the Buffalo Bills and as the season progresses so does the value. Combined with the general advisability against laying double digit lines in the NFL, you can at least make a technical case for a play on the Bills plus the points here. Unfortunately, reality gets in the way. As if this wasn’t a bad enough matchup for the winless Bills, the Ravens enter this contest off a tough loss at New England and with a bye week on deck. They’re likely to be in an ornery mood and the week off means that Buffalo will get their full attention.

The Bills haven’t made the playoffs in the past decade but despite this low level of expectation have managed to fall short. Buffalo is off to their worst start in 25 years. The talent level is so low that its really hard to tell if Chan Gailey is doing a good or bad job coaching. In theory, a winless team off a bye week is a strong situation. For it to be successful, however, it requires talent that Buffalo just doesn’t have. Even good offensive teams struggle against the nasty Ravens’ defense and Buffalo is ranked #30 in total offense and #26 in scoring offense. They’re not any better on defense–they’re ranked #29 in total defense and dead last in both scoring defense and rushing defense. They’ve allowed 30 or more points in their last four games, being outscored 146-77 in the process. They’ve allowed 200+ rushing yards in their last three games which has contributed in large part to that #32 ranking in rush defense. The Ravens won’t need to take to the air as they can just hand the ball to Ray Rice over and over again.

It’s a statistical mismatch, so the only reservation about a play on the Ravens is the large pointspread. Baltimore is a very good favorite–they’re 14-7 ATS laying points since 2008 including 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10′ to 14 points and 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 10+. They’ve beat up on losing teams in that timeframe, going 10-0 SU/9-1 ATS. So in a matchup involving a team that is 1-4 ATS on the year against a team in a favorable pointspread situation we have no problem laying the price.

Bet Baltimore Ravens -13 over Buffalo Bills