NFL Betting Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins

Added on Dec 11, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t going to catch the Atlanta Falcons or New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and are very unlikely to make the playoffs at all. Still, they’ve been one of the real surprise teams of the 2010 NFL season. They’ll enter this matchup with a 7-5 SU record which considering they went 3-13 SU last year is a remarkable turnaround by any metric. The Redskins have been a huge disappointment in Mike Shanahan’s first year at the helm and they’ve got a 5-7 SU record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
December 12, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

The last time the Bucs played at FedEx Field they were +8′ point underdogs in early October 2009 and lost 16-13. They could very well be a -1 point favorite at kickoff time on Sunday. If you’ve read our handicapping writeups here at Sports Betting World you’re aware that we frequently use a comparison between ‘this year’ and ‘last year’ pointspread pricing to assess value. More often than not, we determine that the wagering public’s perception results in an overadjustment which gives us line value one way or the other. In this case, however, we can’t argue with this 8′ or 9′ point swing in the least. Bucs still have a lot of holes to fill at skill positions but are doing a lot of things right. Josh Freeman has become a solid NFL quarterback–he may not be an aerial lethal weapon like Phillip Rivers but he’s a tough guy that plays within himself and finds ways for his team to win. We weren’t big on running back LeGarrette Blount while he was at Oregon more for his attitude than his skills–that led to his infamous sucker punch of a Boise State player after a loss in the 2009 season opener. Nothing but props to Blount for how he’s handled his business since then. He went undrafted (largely due to ‘the punch’) but has worked his ass off to earn a place in the NFL and is becoming a very good running back. He earned the respect of Tennessee Titans’ coach Jeff Fisher in training camp but was eventually waived to make roster space for some defensive players. Their loss was Tampa’s gain and he’s quickly become a vital component of the Bucs’ offense.

We’re the first to admit when we were wrong about something and I have no problem saying that I couldn’t have been more wrong about Bucs’ coach Raheem Morris. I spent much of last year talking about how he might just be in ‘over his head’ at the NFL level. Regardless of what his ‘X and O’ skills may be he’s shown this year that he can make players go out and play hard for him week after week no matter how overmatched they may be ‘on paper’. That’s something that you simply can’t put a price on and the 180 in my opinion about Morris has been so drastic that he’d have my vote for Coach of the Year.

Earlier vintage Tampa Bay teams were always considered ‘warm weather clubs’ that didn’t perform well in the elements. That’s also changed and, if anything, the forecast for rain, wind and cold temps makes the Bucs’ physical and conservative style even more effective. Tampa has been very strong on the road this year going 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS. Skins only 2-4 SU/2-2-2 ATS at home and are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games. In a ‘pick’em’ game we’ve got no problem backing a hard working and tough young Bucs team against a dysfunctional and underachieving Redskins squad. Bucs win outright and that’s all we need them to do.

Bet Tampa Bay Buccaneers PICK over Washington Redskins