NFL Betting Picks: New York Jets at Detroit Lions

Added on Nov 07, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

More NFL betting action on Sunday as the New York Jets travel to ‘Motown’ to take on the Detroit Lions. The Jets haven’t really looked dominant at any point this season but there they are at 5-2, just behind New England in the AFC East. The Lions are 2-5 and tied for last place in the NFC North with Minnesota but they’ve been very competitive in most games.

New York Jets at Detroit Lions
November 7, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

One big difference between ‘squares’ and sharp sports bettors is how they react to pointspread trends. ’Squares’ have a tendency to jump on trends once they’re well established at which point their value is frequently gone. Sharp players do just the opposite–they look for opportunities to buck trends and often get good overlays for the same reason. Detroit has only won two games this year but in light of their downright inept play in recent years the season has already been an unqualified success. As noted above, even in their losses they’ve usually been competitive and the result is one of the best pointspread records in the NFL. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in 2010 and their only loss against the spread was by a single point when they lost by 14 at Minnesota as +13 underdogs. We’ve cashed several tickets on the Lions this season but now that their pointspread success has been reported on such ‘square’ sites as ESPN we’ll look for opportunities to play against them as the season progresses and the contenders start fighting for playoff positioning.

And that’s exactly what we’ve got here–the Jets have also been a good ATS investment this year covering 5 of their 7 games but enter this game off a terrible all around effort against Green Bay. The usually porous Packers’ defense held New York scoreless en route to a 9-0 win. There’s plenty of debate over how good of a coach Rex Ryan is, but you can’t argue with what the Jets have done on the field over the past season and a half. During that time the Jets have shown a lot of fight and professionalism, and for that reason alone we expect a good ‘bounceback’ effort off of that horrible performance against Green Bay. You can look at Detroit’s ATS log for the season and observe how their pointspread success has resulted in an adjustment in the line. In Week 2, they were a +6′ point home underdog against Philadelphia. Today, they’re +5 dogs against the Jets. You’d have a hard time convincing me that the Eagles are +1′ points better than the Jets.

The Jets are healthier than they’ve been all year and are definitely the best defense the Lions have faced all year. Not only is Detroit’s offense vs. New York’s defense a mismatch, the Jets should also have an easy time moving the ball against the Lions’ stop unit. Mark Sanchez has been at his worst against good secondaries, but that’s the Lions’ biggest liability. If he’s completing passes that opens up plenty of room for the Jets’ strong rushing game to work. We fully respect what Detroit has accomplished this year, but against a team with serious playoff aspirations off of a bad performance we don’t see them keeping this one within a touchdown.

Bet New York Jets -5 over Detroit Lions