NFL Betting Picks: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Added on Jan 21, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have one of the longest running rivalries in the NFL, but amazingly they haven’t met in a playoff game since a week after Pearl Harbor was attacked–December 14, 1941. The longtime adversaries face off at Soldier Field this Sunday and the stakes have never been higher with a Super Bowl berth on the line. The Packers routed the Atlanta Falcons last week to advance to this game, while the Bears dismissed the surprising Seattle Seahawks.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
January 23, 2011 12:00 PM Pacific

Home underdogs are frequently attractive opportunities for those that seriously bet on NFL football, and there’s a good case to be made for the Bears in this spot. They haven’t really gotten much respect this season despite a solid 12-5 SU/10-6 ATS record. Chicago was erratic early in the year but since their bye week they’ve gone 8-2 SU/7-2-1 ATS. Since midseason the Bears have tweaked their offensive balance to better equalize their passing and rushing attacks and made some offensive line adjustments to provide Jay Cutler with better pass protection. Cutler is by all means a dangerous quarterback, but he’s prone to turnovers and particularly when facing a lot of pressure from the opposing pass rush.

The Packers are favored here—and favored to win the Super Bowl—due to the fact that they’re playing their best football of the year at the right time. Green Bay persevered through a myriad of injuries during the regular season and including a pair of playoff victories are 12-6 SU/11-7 ATS. Aaron Rodgers is quickly becoming one of the league’s elite quarterbacks and a defense that was considered a liability before the season has matured into the #2 ranked scoring defense in the NFL.

The Bears and Packers split a pair of regular season games, though Chicago covered both. That broke a streak of 4 straight Packer covers though Green Bay still holds a decided pointspread advantage in head to head play and particularly in Chicago—the Packers are on a 14-5 SU/13-6 ATS run at Soldier Field. Six straight games have gone Under the total.

Ultimately, we have to side with the Packers. The Bears have a decent quarterback and defense, but Green Bay is superior in both departments. Chicago does have a strong special teams edge, but that doesn’t negate the fact that the Packers are playing better than any remaining playoff team and looked downright dominant in dispatching the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. We’ll lay the points with the Packers and look for this game to stay Under the total. The current line on the game at BetUS has Green Bay installed as a -3′ point road favorite with the total set at 43.

Bet Green Bay Packers -3′ over Chicago Bears
Bet Green Bay/Chicago Under 43