NFL Betting Picks: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Added on Nov 10, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The New England Patriots got off to a bad start this season losing their first two games but since then they’ve been back in top form winning four of their last five. They’ll have a good opportunity to make it five of six on Sunday as they host the slumping Buffalo Bills. The Bills won their first two games this year but have lost four of five since then.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
November 10, 2012 10:00 AM Pacific

Patriots on a good run winning four of five SU with their only loss a one point setback at Seattle. New England won 52-28 at Buffalo earlier this year and these teams have gone in different directions since then. Patriots only 2-5 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of 10 or more and 1-4 ATS at home. That’s largely a function of their porous defense but that shouldn’t be an issue against a Bills’ team that hasn’t been able to do anything right in the past six weeks. The Patriots have dominated the Bills on their home field going 15-5 SU/11-8-1 ATS.

Bills scored only 9 points against Houston last week but the Patriots’ defense is nothing special and Buffalo has been able to put up points against non-elite defenses. Pats #1 in scoring offense and every reason to think they’ll exceed their 32.8 PPG average here against a Buffalo team averaging 31 PPG against and ranked #31 in scoring defense. Pats OV in 16 of 22 at home since 2010 and 10 of 13 against opponents with losing records. Weather shouldn’t be a concern—not that the Pats haven’t put up big numbers in bad weather before. Buffalo can’t stop New England’s high octane offense so they’ll have to try to outscore them. The problem is that they can’t match the Patriots’ firepower. Ryan Fitzpatrick has regressed this year and has become a turnover machine–since they can’t play conservatively against New England this is a serious problem. It’s never easy to lay this big of a price in the NFL but if there is a situation in which it is justified this is it. We’ll lay the price with New England and look for this game to go Over the total.

Bet New England -11 over Buffalo
Bet New England/Buffalo Over 52