NFL Betting Odds: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Added on Jan 14, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Green Bay will try to keep their momentum going from their wild card weekend victory over the Philadelphia Eagles as they travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons at the Georgia Dome this Saturday. It was the Packers’ third straight win as they faced two ‘elimination games’ down the stretch just to make the playoffs. Atlanta, meanwhile, had the second best record in the league at 13-3 and as a result had a wild card round bye.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
January 15, 2011 5:00 PM Pacific

The Packers deserve a lot of credit for dealing with a number of serious injuries this season—including a concussion suffered by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay played the Falcons tough at the Georgia Dome on November 28, losing by 3 but failing to cover as +2’ point underdogs. As you’d expect from a team with so many reserves playing valuable roles, the team was very inconsistant this season in terms of their offensive productivity and defensive tenacity. This is a team that was capable of beating the Jets 9-0 and the Bears 10-3 as well as losing to Detroit 7-3. They scored 45 points in games against Dallas and the Giants, but gave up 31 points to New England in an early December matchup that meant a lot more to them than to the Patriots.

Green Bay posted a losing SU road record this year going 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS. They also struggled to win close games, going 2-6 in games decided by 3 points or less. For whatever reason, they’ve also been horrible against NFC South opponents going 0-6 SU/ATS since 2008. They’re also an outdoor team used to playing on grass that will be forced to compete indoors on turf against a rested Falcons team. In addition to the bye week, Atlanta was able to rest many of their starters in an easy 31-10 home win over lowly Carolina. In a completely contrast to the Packers’ performance, the Falcons have dominated the NFC North going 6-0 SU/ATS since 2008.

Most significantly, the price on this game reflects the fact that Atlanta remains one of the most underrated teams in the league and particularly on their home field. The Falcons have become a monstrous team on their Georgia Dome home field. Since Mike Smith took over as head coach in 2008 the Falcons are 20-4 SU/16-8 ATS at home including 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS this year. With Matt Ryan at quarterback, the Falcons are on a 17-1 SU run at the Georgia Dome. They’ve also been a dependable favorite in all situations, going 10-4 ATS this year and 19-9 ATS as chalk since 2008.
Green Bay demonstrated that they can hang with Atlanta in their earlier matchup, but could be due for a letdown after three straight ‘must win’ games. We’ll back a rested Falcons team laying less than a field goal on their very solid home field and look for this game to go OVER the total.

Bet Atlanta Falcons -2′ over Green Bay Packers
Bet Atlanta/Green Bay Over 43′