NFL Betting Futures Play: Philadelphia Eagles O/U Win Total

Added on Aug 21, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The NFL regular season doesn’t get underway for a few more weeks, which gives us an opportunity to evaluate teams and schedules and look for good value opportunities in NFL futures plays. One of the more popular NFL futures betting options offered by most major sportsbooks offshore and in Nevada is the Over/Under win proposition. Much like a game total, the book deals a number of wins which you can bet over or under. If the team wins more games than the posted total, bets on the over win; if they win fewer the under cashes.

As we’ve discussed frequently during the past couple of weeks, NFL preseason games usually have little reflection on a team’s performance during the regular season. There are good teams like Indianapolis that could care less what happens in August, and there are bad teams like Seattle who become monsters during exhibition play. There are circumstances, however, where the astute handicapper can get ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ signs based on a team’s preseason performance.

We very well may have gotten a ‘sell’ indication on the Philadelphia Eagles as a result of their first two preseason games. The big news in Philadelphia in the off-season was at the starting quarterback position, where Donovan McNabb was jettisoned and wound up in Washington. Kevin Kolb was handed the reins as the new starter. On balance, we like Kolb who at age 25 will only get better in the next few years. He’s a more traditional, rhythm passer than was McNabb and the hope is that the team can run a prototypical West Coast style offense with Kolb at the controls.

This meant that the preseason is essential to the development of Kolb as the starter and, to a lesser extent, to Michael Vick’s status as the backup. In Week 1, Kolb and Vick put up respectable numbers and Vick even scored a rushing touchdown late in the first half—but neither managed a passing touchdown.

The concern about the first team offense led Andy Reid to publicly announce before Friday night’s game at Cincinnati that the starters would play the entire first half. In fact, the primary goal of the game was to get a touchdown out of the first unit and the Bengals were a made to order opponent for this. The Bengals were off a short week, dealing with a lot of nagging injuries along the offense and defensive lines and head coach Marvin Lewis made clear that the starters weren’t going to see much action. Historically, the Eagles have had the most trouble against 3-4 defenses and the Bengals employ a 4-3 but are trying to work in some 3-4 formations which results in guys playing out of position and in unfamiliar roles.

So what did the Eagles’ first team offense do against a banged up defense working in a lot of new schemes off a short week? Absolutely nothing, despite the fact that Andy Reid had laid his cards on the table and made their productivity the top priority for this game. And it’s not like the Bengals were out trying to ‘make a statement’—despite getting only three David Akers field goals they led the game heading into the fourth quarter before Cincinnati pulled away.

The bottom line is that the Bengals, as advertised, didn’t really prioritize this game while Philly did. And despite that, the Eagles offense laid an egg. Kolb wasn’t bad statistically, going 11 for 17 for 126 yards but was unable to cash in on two long drives. Of greater concern is the fact that he looked uncomfortable—some writers went as far as to suggest he was ‘panicked’—trying to lead the offense. Vick was awful—1-5 for 6 yards and 2 interceptions. Third stringer Mike Kafka looked like Peyton Manning by comparison despite two interceptions at 4-12 for 29 yards.

As noted above, Kolb is a nice talent and should mature into a solid NFL quarterback but it’s important to keep in mind that he’s only made two regular season starts in his career with a 1-1 record. But with the Eagles’ offense trying to change into a more ‘by the book’ possession passing team you’ve got a horrible situation where Kolb is trying to learn the ropes as an NFL starter in a rebuilding offense. Unfortunately, this is the ‘best case’ scenario for the Eagles—that Kolb stays healthy all year and overcomes the ‘growing pains’ inherent in his new role.

Should Kolb go down with an injury for any length of time, the Eagles are screwed. The world learned that Michael Vick is one of the most loathsome human beings on the planet during his trial and conviction on Federal dog fighting charges, but for some reason there’s still a prevailing belief that he’s a competent backup quarterback. Vick is 38-28-1 in his career as a starter, but only 15-16 since 2004. He’s started only one game since 2006. Vick is a guy who has never learned to read NFL defenses and is a substandard passer who once had the athleticism and rushing ability to make up for it. At age 30, this is no longer the case. Furthermore, he’s a horrible fit in the type of offense they’re trying to build around Kolb. The notion of Vick trying to run a West Coast offense based on passing efficiency is laughable. 23 year old Mike Kafka is still a ‘work in progress’ but in no way ready to be an NFL starter.

In 2009 the Eagles were 0-5 both SU and ATS to playoff teams, and they’ve got five on their schedule this year. They also face a New York Giants team that should bounce back after a bad year twice, and have two games against an improving Redskins team now led by a first rate coach in Mike Shanahan. With Donovan McNabb the starting QB at Washington, both of those games will be ‘circled’ for the Skins. They’ve also got tricky road games against teams like Jacksonville, San Francisco and Tennessee.

Longterm, Kevin Kolb has the skills to be a NFL starting quarterback but this is going to be a ‘rebuilding year’ for the entire Eagles team—and particularly on offense. Should Kolb play poorly or get injured, the team simply doesn’t have a viable option to turn to at this point. The defense was fair to middling last year (ranked #12 in total team defense) and if the offense doesn’t hold up their end they’re not dominating enough to compensate. It’s going to be a long year in Philly, and we don’t see a ‘gimmie’ win on the schedule.

Bet Philadelphia Eagles Under 8 wins +100